Year in Advance Oscar Predictions: All Options Are on the Table Now for The Academy (Part One)

Readers, after another decently sized break (this just might be how I handle things these days), it’s time to officially begin the initial conversation about the next awards season. Go figure, a bit of good timing shows up here, as the Cannes Film Festival just recently announced their lineup yesterday, helping generate some additional possibilities. As I always say in pieces like this, year in Advance predictions are either loved or loathed by those who follow the awards season. On the one hand, they’re fun and a glimpse at what the Oscars could potentially look like. On the other, they’re often a completely out of context look at the awards landscape, based mostly on buzz, hype, and speculation, as opposed to anything concrete. I’ve always been in the former camp, though in the couple of years, I’ve been moving towards the latter, where I almost now fully reside. Still, it’s part of the job, and I do actually enjoy it, so…

The past few Oscar seasons have certainly been instructive in some ways. For one, the last few years have proven that when it comes to Best Picture and statistics, only those from this modern era of preferential balloting need apply, full stop. For example, this particular reading made CODA make a lot more sense than a longer read on the category in its year, with the same being said three years for Everything Everywhere All At Once. Two years ago, however, Oppenheimer just ran away with it, negating some of the sleuthing we usually do. Then, this past year, Anora threaded a real interesting needle by dominating, which historical statistics would have predicted, but in the vessel of an independent film that previously would be far afield from what the Academy honors in that manner. That being said, at this early juncture, it’s very much still just a crapshoot.

The Academy is absolutely impossible to read a year out, anytime I do this, but even more so nowadays, even in light of what felt like a traditional pick last time. Just look at what I was predicting last year here (you’ll notice the commentary is even similar, since there’s nothing but blind speculation this early), with the year before right here, and the year before that here. Several of my Best Picture picks actually made the cut in recent years, including the eventual winners, but there’s always plenty of swings and misses. Sometimes, your assumptions about voters can even work against you. For example, last year I held back on going for Anora due to Sean Baker just not connecting with AMPAS. Oops. I once again fully expect to do badly this time around, but that’s just the nature of the beast. Mostly, this is something not to take too seriously. so, have fun with it!

Especially with nominations, voters are looking towards fare they never used to consider, even if some titles do feel on the traditional side. Winners still are seen as a step or two behind the times (though Anora and Everything Everywhere All At Once really pushed things forward in both cases, while Oppenheimer sort of has a foot in both worlds), but that could be changing. Plus, thinking about the winner in any given category right now is absurd and foolish. Nominees, on the other hand? No, still foolish, but I’m a fool. That being said, you can look at the recent tendencies of the Academy and know that their Oscar ballots are, at least in Phase One, more open minded than ever.

I normally like to tell a story with my early predictions, but I don’t know the plot yet, so my picks are again a little bit all over the place. There’s seemingly bigger contenders like Deliver Me From Nowhere and Wicked: For Good that can build on last year’s successes for A Complete Unknown and Wicked, as well as baity titles like Bugonia, Marty Supreme, and One Battle After Another. Then, it’s just hunches. For example, what to make of Jay Kelly? Moreover, it seems foolish to bet against James Cameron with Avatar: Fire and Ash. I’ll dig in on all of the possibilities soon, but this is just scratching the surface.

Below, you can see my advance Oscar predictions (they’ll be uploaded into the predictions section once I have the time, as it’s a labor intensive process, so apologies if they’re not up when you click). We shall see what happens, but this list is sure to change once I give it an update, likely in a month or two, though you’ll see a second part to this next week, as I recently explained. Below is the above the line categories, with below the line coming in a week, so stay tuned there…

Here now are my sure to be wrong Year in Advance predictions for the Academy Awards, written out for easy access. Behold:

BEST PICTURE

1. Deliver Me From Nowhere
2. One Battle After Another
3. Wicked: For Good
4. Jay Kelly
5. Marty Supreme
6. Bugonia
7. Hamnet
8. Sentimental Value
9. Eleanor the Great
10. Avatar: Fire and Ash

Next in Line: 11. The Ballad of a Small Player 12. The Life of Chuck 13. Highest 2 Lowest 14. The Smashing Machine 15. Caught Stealing 16. Is This Thing On? 17. After the Hunt 18. Untitled Kathryn Bigelow White House Thriller 19. Die, My Love 20. The Lost Bus 21. A Big, Bold, Beautiful Journey 22. Frankenstein 23. Anemone 24. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery 25. F1

Also Consider: TBD

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another
2. Jon M. Chu – Wicked: For Good
3. Scott Cooper – Deliver Me From Nowhere
4. Chloé Zhao – Hamnet
5. Joachim Trier – Sentimental Value

Next in Line: 6. Yorgos Lanthimos – Bugonia 7. Noah Baumbach – Jay Kelly 8. Benny Safdie – The Smashing Machine 9. Scarlett Johansson – Eleanor the Great 10. Josh Safdie – Marty Supreme

Also Consider: TBD

BEST ACTOR

1. Jeremy Allen White – Deliver Me From Nowhere
2. Timotheé Chalamet – Marty Supreme
3. Leonardo DiCaprio – One Battle After Another
4. Paul Mescal – Hamnet
5. Dwayne Johnson – The Smashing Machine

Next in Line: 6. Daniel Day-Lewis – Anemone 7. Colin Farrell – The Ballad of a Small Player 8. Denzel Washington – Highest 2 Lowest 9. Oscar Isaac – Frankenstein 10. Ethan Hawke – Blue Moon

Also Consider: TBD

BEST ACTRESS

1. June Squibb – Eleanor the Great
2. Cynthia Erivo – Wicked: For Good
3. Jessie Buckley – Hamnet
4. Emma Stone – Bugonia
5. Renate Reinsve – Sentimental Value

Next in Line: 6. Julia Roberts – After the Hunt 7. Jennifer Lawrence – Die, My Love 8. Teyana Taylor – One Battle After Another 9. Sydney Sweeney – Untitled Christy Martin Movie 10. Tessa Thompson – Hedda

Also Consider: TBD

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Jeremy Strong – Deliver Me From Nowhere
2. Sean Penn – One Battle After Another
3. Adam Sandler – Jay Kelly
4. Jesse Plemons – Bugonia
5. Stellan Skarsgård – Sentimental Value

Next in Line: 6. Benicio Del Toro – One Battle After Another 7. Josh O’Connor – The History of Sound 8. Bradley Cooper – Is This Thing On? 9. Idris Elba – Untitled Kathryn Bigelow Thriller 10. Jonathan Bailey – Wicked: For Good

Also Consider: TBD

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Emily Blunt – The Smashing Machine
2. Ariana Grande – Wicked: For Good
3. Ayo Edebiri – After the Hunt
4. Regina Hall – One Battle After Another
5. Gaby Hoffman – Deliver Me From Nowhere

Next in Line: 6. Alicia Silverstone – Bugonia 7. Anne Hathaway – Mother Mary 8. Laura Dern  – Jay Kelly 9. Tilda Swinton – The Ballad of a Small Player 10. Emily Watson – Hamnet

Also Consider: TBD

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Jay Kelly
2. One Battle After Another
3. Sentimental Value
4. Marty Supreme
5. The Smashing Machine

Next in Line: 6. Eleanor the Great 7. Aneomone 8. Good Fortune 9. Untitled Kathryn Bigelow Thriller 10. After the Hunt

Also Consider: TBD

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. Deliver Me From Nowhere
2. Bugonia
3. Hamnet
4. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
5. The Life of Chuck

Next in Line: 6. Wicked: For Good 7. The Ballad of a Small Player 8. Frankenstein 9. Highest 2 Lowest 10. Caught Stealing

Also Consider: TBD

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

TBD

BEST CASTING

TBD

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

TBD

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

TBD

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

TBD

BEST FILM EDITING

TBD

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

TBD

BEST SOUND

TBD

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

TBD

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

TBD

*The rest are TBD…*

Stay tuned for Part Two of my year in advance Oscar predictions next week!