Awards Season / Oscar Predictions Update: It’s Final Predictions Time as the Academy Gets Set for the Big Show on Sunday

Ladies and gentlemen, the final countdown is on. Zero hour fast approaches. In just a few short days, the 97th Academy Awards will be held. Basically a full year (or more, in the case of some titles) of Oscar buzz and chatter will wrap up with one night of prizes being bestowed on many a worthy nominee. Some categories are very much wrapped up. Some are decidedly toss-ups. So, where do we stand? Well, I’m glad you asked. On the precipice of knowing who and what the next slate of Academy Award winners will be, I am here to help. My final predictions have been made, posted, and locked in. I’m done (unless I panic and change them, but I always try not to). Today, with these picks out in the world, let’s talk about them a bit, especially in terms of the closest races.

You can hear a lot of my thought process on the most recent episode of the Awards Radar Podcast here. Myles and I go over all of the categories and talk it all out, so that’s an excellent resource. Today is just an article and an addendum to that, along with a marker of where I fully stand. Be sure to listen to the pod, but for more visual leaners, click around in the Predictions tab, of course, as well as read what I have to say below…

What I’m doing once again this year is separating Oscar categories into some sub-categories. I have several sections below that you’ll see, ranging from the locks to the basically pick-em races. It’s not really a surprise where things break down at this point. The key? Figuring out just how strong certain contenders will be, or in the case of one, how weak. Is Anora going to triumph? Has Conclave come racing in at the last minute? What kind of penalization is Emilia Pérez looking at? These are some of the things floating in a pundit’s head. Now, onward with my thoughts.

First up, there are some easier categories. For example, above the line it’s fairly obvious that Kieran Culkin is going to win Best Supporting Actor for his turn in A Real Pain. Barring an extreme upset (which I know some are predicting, but I think is more grasping at straws than anything else…unless I’m wrong), Zoe Saldaña is winning Best Supporting Actress for Emilia Pérez. You can also more or less take it to the bank that Peter Straughan is winning Best Adapted Screenplay for Conclave (especially if it hopes to win Best Picture). Below the line, Best Visual Effects is going to Dune: Part Two, while Best Production Design and Best Costume Design seem almost assuredly to be Wicked wins. Throw in The Substance in the Best Makeup & Hairstyling category and you have some spots with no need to really overthink.

Next, we have the ones I feel good about, but aren’t necessarily set in stone. The biggest one is Best Original Screenplay, where Sean Baker and Anora should win, but a surprise from Jesse Eisenberg for A Real Pain or Coralie Fargeat for The Substance would not be completely out of nowhere. I also think The Wild Robot is going to win Best Animated Feature, though Flow has at least a puncher’s chance. Depending on how confident you feel in one contender or another, you could throw some technical categories in here, but when it comes to my Oscar predictions, I’m rarely confident, even if I usually wind up (mostly) correct.

Now, we have below the line curiosities, in that they could swing the night in one direction or another. The biggest is Best Film Editing, where Anora and Conclave are duking it out. The former winning could end the night early, suspense wise, as well as set Baker up for a potentially historic evening. The latter winning would make things in Best Picture a bit more of a nail-biter. This section is also where Best Cinematography (The Brutalist, probably, but maybe not?), Best International Feature (Emilia Pérez or I’m Still Here?), Best Original Score (The Brutalist vs Emilia Pérez, as we again see how much voters have moved off of the latter), and Best Original Song (Emilia Pérez, but if not, maybe any of the other nominees?) reside. Throw in Best Documentary Feature (No Other Land or Porcelain War, it seems) and we’ll see hints for Picture, as well as likely make or break your Oscar pool.

Moving on, we have the Shorts, which I’ll only quickly mention, since I just did not pay enough attention to them, or the conversation around the nominees, this year. So, go with what speaks to you here. My choices are shots in the dark, I fully expect to go 0-3 with these, and any I get right are a happy accident. Mea culpa there.

Finally, the above the line showcases races, particularly the close ones. This is where Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, and Best Actress reside. Actress seems to have broken the way of Demi Moore for The Substance, though Mikey Madison for Anora and Fernanda Torres for I’m Still Here are right there, with Madison potentially a spoiler if her movie has a big night. In Actor, a lot of late-breaking momentum seems to be buoying Timothée Chalamet to essentially a tie with Adrien Brody, though I think the latter still holds on for his turn in The Brutalist, over the former’s leading role in A Complete Unknown. With the Director race, Baker seems to have the edge over Brady Corbet as Anora has apparently passed by The Brutalist in this and other categories, though Corbet bucking the DGA advantage Baker has would not completely shock me. Then, there’s Picture, where it’s Anora vs Conclave. The former just seems to have the statistical advantage, while eleventh hour momentum is in the favor of the latter. I understand picking Conclave, but even if I didn’t adore Anora, things just have lined up in the right way for a win.

In the end, I think Anora does wind up with three wins, all above the line, tying with The Brutalist for the most victories. Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, The Substance, and Wicked each get two wins, with no other film having more than one. The Academy never intentionally spreads the wealth, and I never predict that on purpose, but that’s where this predictions have come down. Oscar will prove me right or prove me wrong.

So, that’s my two cents. My Oscar predictions are now locked in and I’m going to try to ignore them until cross referencing on Sunday. At this point, the Academy Awards are nearly here, so we should just let the voters have their say. Their minds have already been made up. The envelopes may already be sealed. It’s just a matter of waiting to see them opened this weekend…

My prior prediction piece (found right here) is still available for your perusal, but we’ve now come to the end of the line. By the conclusion of the weekend, we’ll know how I did, as well as how all of you did. Exciting, right? I know I’m ready to find out, and I certainly can’t be the only one. Regardless of the outcome, the season has been another fascinating and unpredictable one, so there will be lessons and memories that live on after the Oscars are over.

Folks, as always you can see my crack at Oscar predictions, right here at Awards Radar, as they’re the only other thing left to predict, obviously. It’ll all be over in just a few short days. Full steam ahead to the Academy Award telecast. Sit tight for the results on Sunday evening…

Stay tuned to see how my final predictions turn out when the Academy Awards are held on Sunday!