Joey Magidson
We have just over a week and change until the Academy Awards, ladies and gentlemen. Oscar ballots were due this week, so voting has come to an end. March 2nd is just around the corner. All that’s left in terms of precursors is the Screen Actors Guild Awards, which we’ll be talking a bit about today. In addition, there’s two races that I think are the most fascinating to follow at the Oscars, at least at this very moment. So, combined with an update to my predictions, that’s what we’re about to get into…
There are two big questions that I’m looking at today. They relate to SAG, since that’s the final piece of the puzzle before the Academy chimes in. One concerns the only acting race that remains really in question, while the other concerns the big prize. So, major stuff. To some degree, these categories may be more sewn up than we realize, but we won’t know that until after SAG, potentially. As such, they hold sway in my prognosticator’s mind right now.
First up, there’s the Best Actress race. Most of the season, we only had presumed or speculative frontrunners, some of which didn’t even get nominated by Oscar (cough, Angelina Jolie in Maria, cough). Among the nominees, Mikey Madison had a strong early precursor showing for her turn in Anora, while the Golden Globes boosted Demi Moore for The Substance and Fernanda Torres for I’m Still Here. Moore had the narrative and became almost everyone’s pick, at least until BAFTA last weekend, where Madison upset her. Now, SAG may well be the deciding factor. With how close this seems, I’d be inclined to go with the SAG winner at the Academy Awards next month.
Beyond the Actress battle, Anora is hoping to hold off Conclave in Best Picture. The former seems like the frontrunner, given its haul of Critics Choice, Directors Guild, and Producers Guild top prizes. The latter just has BAFTA. The trio of CCA, DGA, and PGA has proven hard to beat previously, especially combining the latter two. So, you’d rather be Anora right now. If you want to look at Conclave and its path, it relies on taking the Ensemble prize at SAG. That would give it a fighting chance and show some wider support. If the latter can’t win there, I just don’t see it doing anything major with the Academy.
For me, SAG Ensemble needs to go to Conclave to make a difference. If we can safely assume that A Complete Unknown and Emilia Pérez are out of the running here, it’s between Anora, Conclave, and Wicked (the presumed frontrunner with this particular Guild). An Anora win absolutely wraps it up with Oscar and Best Picture. A Conclave win makes the race much closer and presents a very interesting scenario to consider. A Wicked win, which is the most likely outcome given how SAG was so fond of it and the stage-centric bent of some of the voting membership, kind of keeps the status quo. In that case, we have Anora on the doorstep but not quite yet through the threshold, making for a tense few weeks for NEON, who is on the precipice of taking the top prize once again.
This weekend, the Screen Actors Guild will chime in, potentially answering those two questions above. In addition, they’re almost assuredly rubber stamp Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) in Best Actor, Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) in Best Supporting Actor, and Zoë Saldaña (Emilia Pérez) in Best Supporting Actress. Any upsets would be surprising, to say the least, especially in the Supporting categories. If there’s a surprise, look at Best Actor, where SAG could possibly see Brody upset by Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown). Am I predicting it? No. Could it happen? Sure.
The finish line is close. After this weekend, there’s essentially an Oscar bye week to have us all overthink things. I won’t be finalizing my predictions officially until the end of February, on the Friday before the Academy Awards. As such, don’t look at my current picks as the gospel just yet. Post SAG, they’ll be clearer, but at the moment, I’m still looking at an incomplete picture…
My prior predictions article from before the nominations (found here) is available for your perusal, of course. Somehow, we’ve reached the final stage of Phase Two and the Guild prizes, so things are almost completely in place. The upcoming final precursors and Guilds are what still matters, as voters will be paying attention, even if, as mentioned last week, a frontrunner in Anora has definitely emerged. So, you really should be too!
Folks, as always you can see my newest crack at Oscar predictions right here at Awards Radar, plus a still initial attempt at Spirit Award predictions (updates coming soon, I promise), as well as a final set of SAG predictions. Strap in for some more big winners this weekend, which could continue to tell us some very important things…
Stay tuned for an update to these Academy Award predictions very soon!
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