Joey Magidson
Happy Valentine’s Day, folks! Hopefully you’re all celebrating love today. If any film right now is feeling the love, it’s Sean Baker‘s Anora. This weekend prior saw it pull arguably three upsets at the culmination of the critics prize section of awards season in the Critics Choice Awards, as well as two of the most influential guilds in the Directors Guild Awards and Producers Guild Awards. The movie has surged ahead in the Best Picture race, as well as likely for Baker in Best Director (while he remains probably the one to beat in Best Original Screenplay, plus becoming a legitimate threat in Best Film Editing). This big change in the Oscar race not just necessitated an update to my predictions, but a full recalibration of where we stand. So, that’s what I’ve done…
Having CCA, DGA, and PGA in its pocket makes Anora the undisputed frontrunner at the Academy Awards right now. It’s on the final guild awards to either confirm it as unbeatable or coalesce around which other Best Picture (and Best Director) nominee can come back and pull the upset. Assuming that Emilia Pérez is done and dusted, it’s on The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, or Wicked to get their acts together. It feels like an uphill battle, too, as none can boast the kind of Oscar crossover wins that Anora had. So, we have it on the precipice of pulling away.
Earlier in the week, I wrote here about the weekend that Anora had, stating the following:
For months now, two things have been consistent. One has been that pundits, including myself, have spoken about how wide open the Oscar race for Best Picture has been. The other is that, ever since the movie premiered at the Cannes Film Festival and won the Palme d’Or, I’ve been predicting Anora to win Best Picture. I moved off of Sean Baker winning Best Director recently (more on that in a moment), but I’ve had the film winning Picture at the Academy Awards for much of 2024 and all of 2025. To some, it seemed like I was being stubborn. Well, after this weekend, it feels more like I was just early. I don’t say that to brag, just to point out that very little actually happened to give any other flick too much of a leg up. Now, we’re one more big precursor win away from the race being wrapped up. Go figure.
Anora obviously took the top prize at Cannes, earning Baker the best reviews of his career. I initially moved the film into the Oscar pole position due to it being the only title with a win on the board. Then, during Phase One of awards season, it scored as many or more critics group win than any other movie. So, there was no reason to doubt it. Precursor season was very kind to Anora, leading to it scoring pretty much exactly the amount of Oscar nominations it was always expected to receive, especially once Yura Borisov became a factor in Best Supporting Actor. Best Picture, Best Director for Baker, Best Actress for Mikey Madison, Best Original Screenplay for Baker, and Best Film Editing for Baker resulted in a half dozen citations. However, it seemed like other pundits had more stock in newer titles like The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, or even Wicked, though fellow Cannes alum Emilia Pérez was right there as well, at least until…recent events. It seemed like the Golden Globe results, where The Brutalist and Emilia Pérez got big wins, while Madison lost to Demi Moore, made it seem like Anora going home empty-handed was a harbinger of things to come. Well, at least until this weekend.
Friday night, the 30th Critics Choice Awards were held, with most of the night suggesting that Anora was going to get shut out. Baker lost in Best Editing to Challengers, Best Original Screenplay to Coralie Fargeat for The Substance, and Best Director to Jon M. Chu for Wicked. Borisov expectedly fell to Kieran Culkin for A Real Pain in Best Supporting Actor, while Madison came up short to Moore for The Substance in Best Actress. Then, Best Picture was announced. Lo and behold, Anora won. Now, CCA has no Academy crossover, but it was a sign of things to come.
Saturday night was the big one. The Directors Guild Awards and the Producers Guild Awards were given out, back to back. DGA was widely expected to go to Brady Corbet for The Brutalist, especially after he took Best Director at the Globes. PGA on the other hand, was wide open, though largely not expected to go to Anora. First, DGA announced and Baker unexpectedly triumphed. That shock reverberated through the industry, with many folks immediately wondering if the film was about to surprise with the producers next. Well, the movie sure did, being announced less than an hour later as the PGA victor. Suddenly, Anora is in a very enviable position.
Now, Anora is the favorite in Picture, Baker has an excellent chance in Director, while Original Screenplay and Film Editing are very much in play for the filmmaker as well. If the movie manages to win the top prize at the Screen Actors Guild Awards, it’ll be all over. The film is hardly assured of that, but at this point? Bet against it at your own risk. I’ll be writing more about this with updated predictions at the end of the week, but the tide sure has turned…
This weekend, the BAFTA Awards and Writers Guild Awards are being held. BAFTA likely will favor Conclave, while WGA should go for Anora in Original, with A Complete Unknown likely in Adapted. After this weekend, it will mostly be left to the Screen Actors Guild Awards to potentially shake up the race. That being said, things are adding up to really favor Baker’s film. Honestly? If not for the movie being my favorite of the year and my own pessimism making me think that things I love don’t get rewarded, I’d be even more confident in Anora‘s Picture likelihood.
Watch out to see if Anora can pull off any more big wins. This weekend, it’s poised to take one of the WGA prizes, while BAFTA does feel like a longer shot. If it wins something notable with the latter precursor, watch out. Likewise, when SAG comes later on this month, if the top prize goes to Anora, it’s game over. Either way, the flick is clearly the frontrunner, so barring a true alternative emerging, it’s set up very nicely for some Oscar wins. The question is, how many?
My prior predictions article from before the nominations (found here) is available for your perusal, of course. Somehow, we’ve reached the back end of Phase Two and the Guild prizes, so things are beginning to fall into place. The upcoming final precursors and Guilds are what still matters, as voters will be paying attention, even if a frontrunner in Anora has definitely emerged. So, you really should be too!
Folks, as always you can see my newest crack at Oscar predictions right here at Awards Radar, plus a still initial attempt at Spirit Award predictions (updates coming soon), as well as a new set of SAG predictions, alongside my final WGA ones, too. Strap in for some more winners this weekend, which could continue to tell us some things…
Stay tuned for an update to these Academy Award predictions very soon!
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