Awards Season / Oscar Predictions Update: A First Crack at Phase Two Picks After the Nominations

Welcome to Phase Two! Last week, the Academy Award nominations were revealed, ending Phase One and giving us a whole new crop of Oscar nominees. That same day, my predictions were obviously updated, which is perhaps a sign of some sort of compulsive disorder, but also a signal that we’ve entered a new stage of the game. As we dive into Phase Two, I’m sharing my predictions, as well as a quick state of the race.

The nominations on Thursday morning did two very specific things. One is that it showed us who and what actually are Academy Award nominees. So there’s that. The other thing, however, is that it really didn’t fundamentally change the race in any notable way. With as close a race, especially in Best Picture, as we have, it’s going to be on the Guilds even more so than usual. The precursor season will be a race to the finish, lead up to Oscar night.

With regard to the acting races, Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress remain more or less done deals, with Kieran Culkin for A Real Pain and Zoe Saldaña for Emilia Pérez, respectively, way out in front. The nomination morning surprises were Jeremy Strong getting into Supporting Actor for The Apprentice and Felicity Jones getting into Supporting Actress for The Brutalist. Still, I’d be shocked if Culkin and Saldaña don’t hold on to take the gold.

The Lead categories are more fluid. Best Actor saw Daniel Craig miss for Queer in favor of Sebastian Stan for The Apprentice, while in Best Actress it was Fernanda Torres getting nominated for I’m Still Here, taking that final spot that everyone was trying so hard to figure out. Now, Actor feels like either Adrien Brody for The Brutalist or Timothée Chalamet for A Complete Unknown, with Ralph Fiennes hoping to come up the middle for Conclave. As for Actress, Demi Moore feels like the sentimental favorite right now for The Substance, though watch out for Torres, while Mikey Madison is hardly out of it for Anora. These are going to be fun races that go down to the wire.

Below the line, we saw Dune: Part Two falter in several spots, while Emilia Pérez over-performed. There were also strong showings for A Complete Unknown, Nosferatu, and Wicked. Watching to see which film or films do the best in the technical categories will be key in figuring out Picture. Especially for a movie nominated across the board, putting wins on the board will be huge, as the tech categories do correlate above the line.

Best Director feels like Brady Corbet already has it in the bag for The Brutalist. The big nomination morning surprise was that both Coralie Fargeat for The Substance and James Mangold for A Complete Unknown cracked the list, with the excluded filmmaker being Conclave‘s Edward Berger. If it turns into something close to an Emilia Pérez sweep, watch out for Jacques Audiard, but Corbert is going to be hard to beat.

As for Best Picture, the top six contenders truly do all have the ability to make compelling, if incomplete, arguments. We’ll get into those in the coming weeks, but I’d only really count out Dune: Part Two, I’m Still Here (the big surprise of the morning), Nickel Boys (a mild surprise getting in), and The Substance. They just are too far behind. Then, there’s A Complete Unknown, which could benefit greatly on the preferential ballot, as well as Conclave, give or take the Berger snub. A level up, we have Wicked, which scored plenty of nods but will have to fight for respect like Barbie did a year ago. By that logic, the three most likely winners this year are Anora, The Brutalist, and Emilia Pérez. They each have strengths and weaknesses, though all need these noms to turn into wins elsewhere, including the Guilds. There’s a chance we won’t know who is winning Best Picture until Oscar night, which I personally love.

Next up is the Critics Choice Awards, which won’t tell us much, though could provide some extra airtime and buzz to a contender. It’ll be once DGA, PGA, and SAG chime in with their winners that we’ll have a better idea of what’s what. Until then, the nominated films and artists can enjoy this victory lap from Phase One. We’ve come to Phase Two, where the pretenders are gone, yet the contenders must now duke it out with each other. Sit tight for plenty of excitement between now and the Academy Awards!

My prior predictions article from before the nominations (found here) is available for your perusal, of course. Now, we’ve reached the start of Phase Two, things are going to be different. The precursors and Guilds that are still to come matter, as voters will be paying attention. So, you should be too! Plus, if you care about this sort of thing, it’s truly prime time for awards season.

Folks, as always you can see my newest crack at Oscar predictions right here at Awards Radar, plus a first attempt at Spirit Award predictions, as well as an initial set of DGA predictions and SAG predictions, alongside ones for the PGA and WGA, too. The Academy Award nominations are in the books and the Phase Two precursors are kicking off, so strap in…

Stay tuned for an update to these Academy Award predictions very soon!