Prediction Pieces Archives - Awards Radar http://awardsradar.com/category/prediction-pieces/ Objective and thoughtful coverage of Film, TV, Awards and Entertainment News. Fri, 18 Apr 2025 08:47:01 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://i0.wp.com/awardsradar.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/cropped-favi.png?fit=32%2C32&ssl=1 Prediction Pieces Archives - Awards Radar http://awardsradar.com/category/prediction-pieces/ 32 32 70276049 Year in Advance Oscar Predictions: All Options Are on the Table Now for The Academy (Part Two) https://awardsradar.com/2025/04/18/year-in-advance-oscar-predictions-all-options-are-on-the-table-now-for-the-academy-part-two/ https://awardsradar.com/2025/04/18/year-in-advance-oscar-predictions-all-options-are-on-the-table-now-for-the-academy-part-two/#respond Fri, 18 Apr 2025 08:46:58 +0000 https://awardsradar.com/?p=140413 Folks, at the end of last week, I debuted my year in advance Oscar predictions piece. In it, I revealed my initial set of picks, while also more or less setting the stage for an unpredictable season. After all, it does seem like there are less overt contenders at the moment than we’ve had in […]

The post Year in Advance Oscar Predictions: All Options Are on the Table Now for The Academy (Part Two) appeared first on Awards Radar.

]]>
Warner Bros.

Folks, at the end of last week, I debuted my year in advance Oscar predictions piece. In it, I revealed my initial set of picks, while also more or less setting the stage for an unpredictable season. After all, it does seem like there are less overt contenders at the moment than we’ve had in the past. Still, there are films and performances to consider, so consider them we shall. What I didn’t do, however, was include the technical categories in my predictions. So, the movies that would show up there, they’re getting their moment in the sun now. Then, it’s just our garden variety season updates, ad the year progresses…

Today, I’m just doing some very slight tinkering, mainly a thing or two I might have forgotten about or re-ordered, as well as adding most of the below the line categories. Those tech fields are going to be unpredictable, though Wicked: For Good seems very safe for a lot of nominations. Everything else will just depend on the year. For example, right now Deliver Me From Nowhere or One Battle After Another would seem like likely nominees in a number of categories, while Avatar: Fire and Ash could be a below the line juggernaut. Come January? Who knows? That’s the fun of this, to be sure. So, just keep that in mind.

From here on, I’ll be updating my predictions from time to time. Mostly, it’ll be when it seems appropriate to do so. The next one will be likely after the Cannes Film Festival, though we’ll see. Right now, however, my picks in the mid April landscape can be seen, for whatever that’s worth…

Here now are my sure to be wrong Year in Advance predictions for the Academy Awards, fully written out for easy access. Behold:

BEST PICTURE

1. Deliver Me From Nowhere
2. One Battle After Another
3. Wicked: For Good
4. Jay Kelly
5. Marty Supreme
6. Bugonia
7. Hamnet
8. Sentimental Value
9. Eleanor the Great
10. Avatar: Fire and Ash

Next in Line: 11. The Ballad of a Small Player 12. The Life of Chuck 13. Highest 2 Lowest 14. The Smashing Machine 15. Caught Stealing 16. Is This Thing On? 17. After the Hunt 18. Untitled Kathryn Bigelow White House Thriller 19. Die, My Love 20. The Lost Bus 21. A Big, Bold, Beautiful Journey 22. Frankenstein 23. Anemone 24. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery 25. F1

Also Consider: 26. Eddington 27. Hedda 28. The History of Sound 29. Blue Moon 30. Good Fortune

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another
2. Jon M. Chu – Wicked: For Good
3. Scott Cooper – Deliver Me From Nowhere
4. Chloé Zhao – Hamnet
5. Joachim Trier – Sentimental Value

Next in Line: 6. Yorgos Lanthimos – Bugonia 7. Noah Baumbach – Jay Kelly 8. Benny Safdie – The Smashing Machine 9. Scarlett Johansson – Eleanor the Great 10. Josh Safdie – Marty Supreme

Also Consider: TBD

BEST ACTOR

1. Jeremy Allen White – Deliver Me From Nowhere
2. Timotheé Chalamet – Marty Supreme
3. Leonardo DiCaprio – One Battle After Another
4. Paul Mescal – Hamnet
5. Dwayne Johnson – The Smashing Machine

Next in Line: 6. Daniel Day-Lewis – Anemone 7. Colin Farrell – The Ballad of a Small Player 8. Denzel Washington – Highest 2 Lowest 9. Oscar Isaac – Frankenstein 10. Ethan Hawke – Blue Moon

Also Consider: TBD

BEST ACTRESS

1. June Squibb – Eleanor the Great
2. Cynthia Erivo – Wicked: For Good
3. Jessie Buckley – Hamnet
4. Emma Stone – Bugonia
5. Renate Reinsve – Sentimental Value

Next in Line: 6. Julia Roberts – After the Hunt 7. Jennifer Lawrence – Die, My Love 8. Teyana Taylor – One Battle After Another 9. Sydney Sweeney – Untitled Christy Martin Movie 10. Tessa Thompson – Hedda

Also Consider: TBD

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Jeremy Strong – Deliver Me From Nowhere
2. Sean Penn – One Battle After Another
3. Adam Sandler – Jay Kelly
4. Jesse Plemons – Bugonia
5. Stellan Skarsgård – Sentimental Value

Next in Line: 6. Benicio Del Toro – One Battle After Another 7. Josh O’Connor – The History of Sound 8. Bradley Cooper – Is This Thing On? 9. Idris Elba – Untitled Kathryn Bigelow Thriller 10. Jonathan Bailey – Wicked: For Good

Also Consider: TBD

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Emily Blunt – The Smashing Machine
2. Ariana Grande – Wicked: For Good
3. Ayo Edebiri – After the Hunt
4. Regina Hall – One Battle After Another
5. Gaby Hoffman – Deliver Me From Nowhere

Next in Line: 6. Alicia Silverstone – Bugonia 7. Anne Hathaway – Mother Mary 8. Laura Dern  – Jay Kelly 9. Tilda Swinton – The Ballad of a Small Player 10. Emily Watson – Hamnet

Also Consider: TBD

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Jay Kelly
2. One Battle After Another
3. Sentimental Value
4. Marty Supreme
5. The Smashing Machine

Next in Line: 6. Eleanor the Great 7. Aneomone 8. Good Fortune 9. Untitled Kathryn Bigelow Thriller 10. After the Hunt

Also Consider: TBD

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. Deliver Me From Nowhere
2. Bugonia
3. Hamnet
4. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
5. The Life of Chuck

Next in Line: 6. Wicked: For Good 7. The Ballad of a Small Player 8. Frankenstein 9. Highest 2 Lowest 10. Caught Stealing

Also Consider: TBD

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Elio
2. Zootopia 2
3. In Your Dreams
4. Predator: Killer of Killers
5. Fixed

BEST CASTING

1. Deliver Me From Nowhere
2. One Battle After Another
3. Marty Supreme
4. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
5. Wicked: For Good

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Wicked: For Good
2. Avatar: Fire and Ash
3. Deliver Me From Nowhere
4. One Battle After Another
5. The Phoenician Scheme

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. Deliver Me From Nowhere
2. Wicked: For Good
3. One Battle After Another
4. F1
5. Avatar: Fire and Ash

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. Wicked: For Good
2. Deliver Me From Nowhere
3. Hamnet
4. Frankenstein
5. Blue Moon

BEST FILM EDITING

1. Deliver Me From Nowhere
2. F1
3. One Battle After Another
4. Wicked: For Good
5. Avatar: Fire and Ash

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

1. Wicked: For Good
2. Frankenstein
3. The Smashing Machine
4. Mother Mary
5. Deliver Me From Nowhere

BEST SOUND

1. F1
2. Mission Impossible – The Final Reckoning
3. Deliver Me From Nowhere
4. Wicked: For Good
5. Warfare

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash
2. Mission Impossible – The Final Reckoning
3. Superman
4. Jurassic World: Rebirth
5. The Fantastic Four: First Steps

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. One Battle After Another
2. Bugonia
3. F1
4. Frankenstein
5. Avatar: Fire and Ash

*The rest are TBD…*

Stay tuned for an update to these year in advance Oscar predictions as springtime continues on!

The post Year in Advance Oscar Predictions: All Options Are on the Table Now for The Academy (Part Two) appeared first on Awards Radar.

]]>
https://awardsradar.com/2025/04/18/year-in-advance-oscar-predictions-all-options-are-on-the-table-now-for-the-academy-part-two/feed/ 0 140413
Year in Advance Oscar Predictions: All Options Are on the Table Now for The Academy (Part One) https://awardsradar.com/2025/04/11/year-in-advance-oscar-predictions-all-options-are-on-the-table-now-for-the-academy-part-one/ https://awardsradar.com/2025/04/11/year-in-advance-oscar-predictions-all-options-are-on-the-table-now-for-the-academy-part-one/#comments Fri, 11 Apr 2025 07:21:41 +0000 https://awardsradar.com/?p=140210 Readers, after another decently sized break (this just might be how I handle things these days), it’s time to officially begin the initial conversation about the next awards season. Go figure, a bit of good timing shows up here, as the Cannes Film Festival just recently announced their lineup yesterday, helping generate some additional possibilities. […]

The post Year in Advance Oscar Predictions: All Options Are on the Table Now for The Academy (Part One) appeared first on Awards Radar.

]]>
Readers, after another decently sized break (this just might be how I handle things these days), it’s time to officially begin the initial conversation about the next awards season. Go figure, a bit of good timing shows up here, as the Cannes Film Festival just recently announced their lineup yesterday, helping generate some additional possibilities. As I always say in pieces like this, year in Advance predictions are either loved or loathed by those who follow the awards season. On the one hand, they’re fun and a glimpse at what the Oscars could potentially look like. On the other, they’re often a completely out of context look at the awards landscape, based mostly on buzz, hype, and speculation, as opposed to anything concrete. I’ve always been in the former camp, though in the couple of years, I’ve been moving towards the latter, where I almost now fully reside. Still, it’s part of the job, and I do actually enjoy it, so…

The past few Oscar seasons have certainly been instructive in some ways. For one, the last few years have proven that when it comes to Best Picture and statistics, only those from this modern era of preferential balloting need apply, full stop. For example, this particular reading made CODA make a lot more sense than a longer read on the category in its year, with the same being said three years for Everything Everywhere All At Once. Two years ago, however, Oppenheimer just ran away with it, negating some of the sleuthing we usually do. Then, this past year, Anora threaded a real interesting needle by dominating, which historical statistics would have predicted, but in the vessel of an independent film that previously would be far afield from what the Academy honors in that manner. That being said, at this early juncture, it’s very much still just a crapshoot.

The Academy is absolutely impossible to read a year out, anytime I do this, but even more so nowadays, even in light of what felt like a traditional pick last time. Just look at what I was predicting last year here (you’ll notice the commentary is even similar, since there’s nothing but blind speculation this early), with the year before right here, and the year before that here. Several of my Best Picture picks actually made the cut in recent years, including the eventual winners, but there’s always plenty of swings and misses. Sometimes, your assumptions about voters can even work against you. For example, last year I held back on going for Anora due to Sean Baker just not connecting with AMPAS. Oops. I once again fully expect to do badly this time around, but that’s just the nature of the beast. Mostly, this is something not to take too seriously. so, have fun with it!

Especially with nominations, voters are looking towards fare they never used to consider, even if some titles do feel on the traditional side. Winners still are seen as a step or two behind the times (though Anora and Everything Everywhere All At Once really pushed things forward in both cases, while Oppenheimer sort of has a foot in both worlds), but that could be changing. Plus, thinking about the winner in any given category right now is absurd and foolish. Nominees, on the other hand? No, still foolish, but I’m a fool. That being said, you can look at the recent tendencies of the Academy and know that their Oscar ballots are, at least in Phase One, more open minded than ever.

20th Century Studios

I normally like to tell a story with my early predictions, but I don’t know the plot yet, so my picks are again a little bit all over the place. There’s seemingly bigger contenders like Deliver Me From Nowhere and Wicked: For Good that can build on last year’s successes for A Complete Unknown and Wicked, as well as baity titles like BugoniaMarty Supreme, and One Battle After Another. Then, it’s just hunches. For example, what to make of Jay Kelly? Moreover, it seems foolish to bet against James Cameron with Avatar: Fire and Ash. I’ll dig in on all of the possibilities soon, but this is just scratching the surface.

Below, you can see my advance Oscar predictions (they’ll be uploaded into the predictions section once I have the time, as it’s a labor intensive process, so apologies if they’re not up when you click). We shall see what happens, but this list is sure to change once I give it an update, likely in a month or two, though you’ll see a second part to this next week, as I recently explained. Below is the above the line categories, with below the line coming in a week, so stay tuned there…

Warner Bros.

Here now are my sure to be wrong Year in Advance predictions for the Academy Awards, written out for easy access. Behold:

BEST PICTURE

1. Deliver Me From Nowhere
2. One Battle After Another
3. Wicked: For Good
4. Jay Kelly
5. Marty Supreme
6. Bugonia
7. Hamnet
8. Sentimental Value
9. Eleanor the Great
10. Avatar: Fire and Ash

Next in Line: 11. The Ballad of a Small Player 12. The Life of Chuck 13. Highest 2 Lowest 14. The Smashing Machine 15. Caught Stealing 16. Is This Thing On? 17. After the Hunt 18. Untitled Kathryn Bigelow White House Thriller 19. Die, My Love 20. The Lost Bus 21. A Big, Bold, Beautiful Journey 22. Frankenstein 23. Anemone 24. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery 25. F1

Also Consider: TBD

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another
2. Jon M. Chu – Wicked: For Good
3. Scott Cooper – Deliver Me From Nowhere
4. Chloé Zhao – Hamnet
5. Joachim Trier – Sentimental Value

Next in Line: 6. Yorgos Lanthimos – Bugonia 7. Noah Baumbach – Jay Kelly 8. Benny Safdie – The Smashing Machine 9. Scarlett Johansson – Eleanor the Great 10. Josh Safdie – Marty Supreme

Also Consider: TBD

BEST ACTOR

1. Jeremy Allen White – Deliver Me From Nowhere
2. Timotheé Chalamet – Marty Supreme
3. Leonardo DiCaprio – One Battle After Another
4. Paul Mescal – Hamnet
5. Dwayne Johnson – The Smashing Machine

Next in Line: 6. Daniel Day-Lewis – Anemone 7. Colin Farrell – The Ballad of a Small Player 8. Denzel Washington – Highest 2 Lowest 9. Oscar Isaac – Frankenstein 10. Ethan Hawke – Blue Moon

Also Consider: TBD

BEST ACTRESS

1. June Squibb – Eleanor the Great
2. Cynthia Erivo – Wicked: For Good
3. Jessie Buckley – Hamnet
4. Emma Stone – Bugonia
5. Renate Reinsve – Sentimental Value

Next in Line: 6. Julia Roberts – After the Hunt 7. Jennifer Lawrence – Die, My Love 8. Teyana Taylor – One Battle After Another 9. Sydney Sweeney – Untitled Christy Martin Movie 10. Tessa Thompson – Hedda

Also Consider: TBD

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Jeremy Strong – Deliver Me From Nowhere
2. Sean Penn – One Battle After Another
3. Adam Sandler – Jay Kelly
4. Jesse Plemons – Bugonia
5. Stellan Skarsgård – Sentimental Value

Next in Line: 6. Benicio Del Toro – One Battle After Another 7. Josh O’Connor – The History of Sound 8. Bradley Cooper – Is This Thing On? 9. Idris Elba – Untitled Kathryn Bigelow Thriller 10. Jonathan Bailey – Wicked: For Good

Also Consider: TBD

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Emily Blunt – The Smashing Machine
2. Ariana Grande – Wicked: For Good
3. Ayo Edebiri – After the Hunt
4. Regina Hall – One Battle After Another
5. Gaby Hoffman – Deliver Me From Nowhere

Next in Line: 6. Alicia Silverstone – Bugonia 7. Anne Hathaway – Mother Mary 8. Laura Dern  – Jay Kelly 9. Tilda Swinton – The Ballad of a Small Player 10. Emily Watson – Hamnet

Also Consider: TBD

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Jay Kelly
2. One Battle After Another
3. Sentimental Value
4. Marty Supreme
5. The Smashing Machine

Next in Line: 6. Eleanor the Great 7. Aneomone 8. Good Fortune 9. Untitled Kathryn Bigelow Thriller 10. After the Hunt

Also Consider: TBD

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. Deliver Me From Nowhere
2. Bugonia
3. Hamnet
4. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
5. The Life of Chuck

Next in Line: 6. Wicked: For Good 7. The Ballad of a Small Player 8. Frankenstein 9. Highest 2 Lowest 10. Caught Stealing

Also Consider: TBD

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

TBD

BEST CASTING

TBD

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

TBD

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

TBD

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

TBD

BEST FILM EDITING

TBD

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

TBD

BEST SOUND

TBD

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

TBD

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

TBD

*The rest are TBD…*

Universal

Stay tuned for Part Two of my year in advance Oscar predictions next week!

The post Year in Advance Oscar Predictions: All Options Are on the Table Now for The Academy (Part One) appeared first on Awards Radar.

]]>
https://awardsradar.com/2025/04/11/year-in-advance-oscar-predictions-all-options-are-on-the-table-now-for-the-academy-part-one/feed/ 1 140210
Awards Season / Oscar Predictions Update: It’s Final Predictions Time as the Academy Gets Set for the Big Show on Sunday https://awardsradar.com/2025/02/28/awards-season-oscar-predictions-update-its-final-predictions-time-as-the-academy-gets-set-for-the-big-show-on-sunday/ https://awardsradar.com/2025/02/28/awards-season-oscar-predictions-update-its-final-predictions-time-as-the-academy-gets-set-for-the-big-show-on-sunday/#comments Fri, 28 Feb 2025 08:38:21 +0000 https://awardsradar.com/?p=138239 Ladies and gentlemen, the final countdown is on. Zero hour fast approaches. In just a few short days, the 97th Academy Awards will be held. Basically a full year (or more, in the case of some titles) of Oscar buzz and chatter will wrap up with one night of prizes being bestowed on many a […]

The post Awards Season / Oscar Predictions Update: It’s Final Predictions Time as the Academy Gets Set for the Big Show on Sunday appeared first on Awards Radar.

]]>

Ladies and gentlemen, the final countdown is on. Zero hour fast approaches. In just a few short days, the 97th Academy Awards will be held. Basically a full year (or more, in the case of some titles) of Oscar buzz and chatter will wrap up with one night of prizes being bestowed on many a worthy nominee. Some categories are very much wrapped up. Some are decidedly toss-ups. So, where do we stand? Well, I’m glad you asked. On the precipice of knowing who and what the next slate of Academy Award winners will be, I am here to help. My final predictions have been made, posted, and locked in. I’m done (unless I panic and change them, but I always try not to). Today, with these picks out in the world, let’s talk about them a bit, especially in terms of the closest races.

You can hear a lot of my thought process on the most recent episode of the Awards Radar Podcast here. Myles and I go over all of the categories and talk it all out, so that’s an excellent resource. Today is just an article and an addendum to that, along with a marker of where I fully stand. Be sure to listen to the pod, but for more visual leaners, click around in the Predictions tab, of course, as well as read what I have to say below…

What I’m doing once again this year is separating Oscar categories into some sub-categories. I have several sections below that you’ll see, ranging from the locks to the basically pick-em races. It’s not really a surprise where things break down at this point. The key? Figuring out just how strong certain contenders will be, or in the case of one, how weak. Is Anora going to triumph? Has Conclave come racing in at the last minute? What kind of penalization is Emilia Pérez looking at? These are some of the things floating in a pundit’s head. Now, onward with my thoughts.

First up, there are some easier categories. For example, above the line it’s fairly obvious that Kieran Culkin is going to win Best Supporting Actor for his turn in A Real Pain. Barring an extreme upset (which I know some are predicting, but I think is more grasping at straws than anything else…unless I’m wrong), Zoe Saldaña is winning Best Supporting Actress for Emilia Pérez. You can also more or less take it to the bank that Peter Straughan is winning Best Adapted Screenplay for Conclave (especially if it hopes to win Best Picture). Below the line, Best Visual Effects is going to Dune: Part Two, while Best Production Design and Best Costume Design seem almost assuredly to be Wicked wins. Throw in The Substance in the Best Makeup & Hairstyling category and you have some spots with no need to really overthink.

Next, we have the ones I feel good about, but aren’t necessarily set in stone. The biggest one is Best Original Screenplay, where Sean Baker and Anora should win, but a surprise from Jesse Eisenberg for A Real Pain or Coralie Fargeat for The Substance would not be completely out of nowhere. I also think The Wild Robot is going to win Best Animated Feature, though Flow has at least a puncher’s chance. Depending on how confident you feel in one contender or another, you could throw some technical categories in here, but when it comes to my Oscar predictions, I’m rarely confident, even if I usually wind up (mostly) correct.

Now, we have below the line curiosities, in that they could swing the night in one direction or another. The biggest is Best Film Editing, where Anora and Conclave are duking it out. The former winning could end the night early, suspense wise, as well as set Baker up for a potentially historic evening. The latter winning would make things in Best Picture a bit more of a nail-biter. This section is also where Best Cinematography (The Brutalist, probably, but maybe not?), Best International Feature (Emilia Pérez or I’m Still Here?), Best Original Score (The Brutalist vs Emilia Pérez, as we again see how much voters have moved off of the latter), and Best Original Song (Emilia Pérez, but if not, maybe any of the other nominees?) reside. Throw in Best Documentary Feature (No Other Land or Porcelain War, it seems) and we’ll see hints for Picture, as well as likely make or break your Oscar pool.

Moving on, we have the Shorts, which I’ll only quickly mention, since I just did not pay enough attention to them, or the conversation around the nominees, this year. So, go with what speaks to you here. My choices are shots in the dark, I fully expect to go 0-3 with these, and any I get right are a happy accident. Mea culpa there.

Finally, the above the line showcases races, particularly the close ones. This is where Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, and Best Actress reside. Actress seems to have broken the way of Demi Moore for The Substance, though Mikey Madison for Anora and Fernanda Torres for I’m Still Here are right there, with Madison potentially a spoiler if her movie has a big night. In Actor, a lot of late-breaking momentum seems to be buoying Timothée Chalamet to essentially a tie with Adrien Brody, though I think the latter still holds on for his turn in The Brutalist, over the former’s leading role in A Complete Unknown. With the Director race, Baker seems to have the edge over Brady Corbet as Anora has apparently passed by The Brutalist in this and other categories, though Corbet bucking the DGA advantage Baker has would not completely shock me. Then, there’s Picture, where it’s Anora vs Conclave. The former just seems to have the statistical advantage, while eleventh hour momentum is in the favor of the latter. I understand picking Conclave, but even if I didn’t adore Anora, things just have lined up in the right way for a win.

In the end, I think Anora does wind up with three wins, all above the line, tying with The Brutalist for the most victories. Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, The Substance, and Wicked each get two wins, with no other film having more than one. The Academy never intentionally spreads the wealth, and I never predict that on purpose, but that’s where this predictions have come down. Oscar will prove me right or prove me wrong.

So, that’s my two cents. My Oscar predictions are now locked in and I’m going to try to ignore them until cross referencing on Sunday. At this point, the Academy Awards are nearly here, so we should just let the voters have their say. Their minds have already been made up. The envelopes may already be sealed. It’s just a matter of waiting to see them opened this weekend…

My prior prediction piece (found right here) is still available for your perusal, but we’ve now come to the end of the line. By the conclusion of the weekend, we’ll know how I did, as well as how all of you did. Exciting, right? I know I’m ready to find out, and I certainly can’t be the only one. Regardless of the outcome, the season has been another fascinating and unpredictable one, so there will be lessons and memories that live on after the Oscars are over.

Folks, as always you can see my crack at Oscar predictions, right here at Awards Radar, as they’re the only other thing left to predict, obviously. It’ll all be over in just a few short days. Full steam ahead to the Academy Award telecast. Sit tight for the results on Sunday evening…

Stay tuned to see how my final predictions turn out when the Academy Awards are held on Sunday!

The post Awards Season / Oscar Predictions Update: It’s Final Predictions Time as the Academy Gets Set for the Big Show on Sunday appeared first on Awards Radar.

]]>
https://awardsradar.com/2025/02/28/awards-season-oscar-predictions-update-its-final-predictions-time-as-the-academy-gets-set-for-the-big-show-on-sunday/feed/ 4 138239
Awards Radar Podcast #229: Joey and Myles Share Their Final Oscar Predictions While Discussing What Might Happen on Sunday Night! https://awardsradar.com/2025/02/27/awards-radar-podcast-229-joey-and-myles-share-their-final-oscar-predictions-while-discussing-what-might-happen-on-sunday-night/ https://awardsradar.com/2025/02/27/awards-radar-podcast-229-joey-and-myles-share-their-final-oscar-predictions-while-discussing-what-might-happen-on-sunday-night/#comments Thu, 27 Feb 2025 16:23:15 +0000 https://awardsradar.com/?p=138082 Welcome back to the Awards Radar Podcast. In each episode, Editor Joey Magidson (that’s me!) will be joined by some of the staff of Awards Radar to talk about the latest in film, television, and entertainment in general. The show will obviously have an awards season slant to it, but we won’t forget about other […]

The post Awards Radar Podcast #229: Joey and Myles Share Their Final Oscar Predictions While Discussing What Might Happen on Sunday Night! appeared first on Awards Radar.

]]>
Welcome back to the Awards Radar Podcast. In each episode, Editor Joey Magidson (that’s me!) will be joined by some of the staff of Awards Radar to talk about the latest in film, television, and entertainment in general. The show will obviously have an awards season slant to it, but we won’t forget about other movies and shows, that’s for sure!

For episode 229, I’m joined once again by my co-host Myles Hughes, with producer Steve Prusakowski behind the scenes preparing for Emmys and a new season of TV Topics, so look out for that. This week, it’s time for final Oscar predictions! You can see my finalized picks here, with a full article coming tomorrow. However, Myles and I go over all of the categories in depth, with his final decisions alongside my last bits of back and forth, where applicable. We also talk about the recent James Bond news, as well as Kathleen Kennedy retiring from Star Wars, plus your questions, but it’s Academy Awards chatter throughout. Oscar predictions galore…

As always my friends and faithful listeners/readers, I do hope you all enjoy the latest episode of the Awards Radar Podcast, our 229th one to date (here’s to many more). Of course, feel free to revisit the previous installments by clicking the Podcast tab (here) on the top of the page. Plus, listen to us on Apple Podcasts (iTunes), Spotify, and other platforms. More to come each and every single week, so from the bottom of my heart, thank you for listening!

The post Awards Radar Podcast #229: Joey and Myles Share Their Final Oscar Predictions While Discussing What Might Happen on Sunday Night! appeared first on Awards Radar.

]]>
https://awardsradar.com/2025/02/27/awards-radar-podcast-229-joey-and-myles-share-their-final-oscar-predictions-while-discussing-what-might-happen-on-sunday-night/feed/ 1 138082
Awards Season / Oscar Predictions Update: It’s Mikey Madison vs Demi Moore in Best Actress as ‘Anora’ Seeks to Hold Off ‘Conclave’ in Best Picture with Ballots Turned In https://awardsradar.com/2025/02/21/awards-season-oscar-predictions-update-its-mikey-madison-vs-demi-moore-in-best-actress-as-anora-seeks-to-hold-off-conclave-in-best-picture-with-ballots-turned-in/ https://awardsradar.com/2025/02/21/awards-season-oscar-predictions-update-its-mikey-madison-vs-demi-moore-in-best-actress-as-anora-seeks-to-hold-off-conclave-in-best-picture-with-ballots-turned-in/#respond Fri, 21 Feb 2025 07:03:51 +0000 https://awardsradar.com/?p=137610 We have just over a week and change until the Academy Awards, ladies and gentlemen. Oscar ballots were due this week, so voting has come to an end. March 2nd is just around the corner. All that’s left in terms of precursors is the Screen Actors Guild Awards, which we’ll be talking a bit about […]

The post Awards Season / Oscar Predictions Update: It’s Mikey Madison vs Demi Moore in Best Actress as ‘Anora’ Seeks to Hold Off ‘Conclave’ in Best Picture with Ballots Turned In appeared first on Awards Radar.

]]>
We have just over a week and change until the Academy Awards, ladies and gentlemen. Oscar ballots were due this week, so voting has come to an end. March 2nd is just around the corner. All that’s left in terms of precursors is the Screen Actors Guild Awards, which we’ll be talking a bit about today. In addition, there’s two races that I think are the most fascinating to follow at the Oscars, at least at this very moment. So, combined with an update to my predictions, that’s what we’re about to get into…

There are two big questions that I’m looking at today. They relate to SAG, since that’s the final piece of the puzzle before the Academy chimes in. One concerns the only acting race that remains really in question, while the other concerns the big prize. So, major stuff. To some degree, these categories may be more sewn up than we realize, but we won’t know that until after SAG, potentially. As such, they hold sway in my prognosticator’s mind right now.

First up, there’s the Best Actress race. Most of the season, we only had presumed or speculative frontrunners, some of which didn’t even get nominated by Oscar (cough, Angelina Jolie in Maria, cough). Among the nominees, Mikey Madison had a strong early precursor showing for her turn in Anora, while the Golden Globes boosted Demi Moore for The Substance and Fernanda Torres for I’m Still Here. Moore had the narrative and became almost everyone’s pick, at least until BAFTA last weekend, where Madison upset her. Now, SAG may well be the deciding factor. With how close this seems, I’d be inclined to go with the SAG winner at the Academy Awards next month.

Beyond the Actress battle, Anora is hoping to hold off Conclave in Best Picture. The former seems like the frontrunner, given its haul of Critics Choice, Directors Guild, and Producers Guild top prizes. The latter just has BAFTA. The trio of CCA, DGA, and PGA has proven hard to beat previously, especially combining the latter two. So, you’d rather be Anora right now. If you want to look at Conclave and its path, it relies on taking the Ensemble prize at SAG. That would give it a fighting chance and show some wider support. If the latter can’t win there, I just don’t see it doing anything major with the Academy.

For me, SAG Ensemble needs to go to Conclave to make a difference. If we can safely assume that A Complete Unknown and Emilia Pérez are out of the running here, it’s between Anora, Conclave, and Wicked (the presumed frontrunner with this particular Guild). An Anora win absolutely wraps it up with Oscar and Best Picture. A Conclave win makes the race much closer and presents a very interesting scenario to consider. A Wicked win, which is the most likely outcome given how SAG was so fond of it and the stage-centric bent of some of the voting membership, kind of keeps the status quo. In that case, we have Anora on the doorstep but not quite yet through the threshold, making for a tense few weeks for NEON, who is on the precipice of taking the top prize once again.

LOS ANGELES, CA – JANUARY 21: The ‘Actor’ statue on display before the 24th Annual Screen Actors Guild Awards Trophy Room at The Shrine Auditorium on January 21, 2018 in Los Angeles, California. 27522_010 (Photo by Christopher Polk/Getty Images for Turner)

This weekend, the Screen Actors Guild will chime in, potentially answering those two questions above. In addition, they’re almost assuredly rubber stamp Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) in Best Actor, Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) in Best Supporting Actor, and Zoë Saldaña (Emilia Pérez) in Best Supporting Actress. Any upsets would be surprising, to say the least, especially in the Supporting categories. If there’s a surprise, look at Best Actor, where SAG could possibly see Brody upset by Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown). Am I predicting it? No. Could it happen? Sure.

The finish line is close. After this weekend, there’s essentially an Oscar bye week to have us all overthink things. I won’t be finalizing my predictions officially until the end of February, on the Friday before the Academy Awards. As such, don’t look at my current picks as the gospel just yet. Post SAG, they’ll be clearer, but at the moment, I’m still looking at an incomplete picture…

My prior predictions article from before the nominations (found here) is available for your perusal, of course. Somehow, we’ve reached the final stage of Phase Two and the Guild prizes, so things are almost completely in place. The upcoming final precursors and Guilds are what still matters, as voters will be paying attention, even if, as mentioned last week, a frontrunner in Anora has definitely emerged. So, you really should be too!

Folks, as always you can see my newest crack at Oscar predictions right here at Awards Radar, plus a still initial attempt at Spirit Award predictions (updates coming soon, I promise), as well as a final set of SAG predictions. Strap in for some more big winners this weekend, which could continue to tell us some very important things…

Stay tuned for an update to these Academy Award predictions very soon!

The post Awards Season / Oscar Predictions Update: It’s Mikey Madison vs Demi Moore in Best Actress as ‘Anora’ Seeks to Hold Off ‘Conclave’ in Best Picture with Ballots Turned In appeared first on Awards Radar.

]]>
https://awardsradar.com/2025/02/21/awards-season-oscar-predictions-update-its-mikey-madison-vs-demi-moore-in-best-actress-as-anora-seeks-to-hold-off-conclave-in-best-picture-with-ballots-turned-in/feed/ 0 137610
Awards Season / Oscar Predictions Update: ‘Anora’ is One Big Guild Win Away From Ending This Race https://awardsradar.com/2025/02/14/awards-season-oscar-predictions-update-anora-is-one-big-guild-win-away-from-ending-this-race/ https://awardsradar.com/2025/02/14/awards-season-oscar-predictions-update-anora-is-one-big-guild-win-away-from-ending-this-race/#respond Fri, 14 Feb 2025 08:57:46 +0000 https://awardsradar.com/?p=137146 Happy Valentine’s Day, folks! Hopefully you’re all celebrating love today. If any film right now is feeling the love, it’s Sean Baker‘s Anora. This weekend prior saw it pull arguably three upsets at the culmination of the critics prize section of awards season in the Critics Choice Awards, as well as two of the most […]

The post Awards Season / Oscar Predictions Update: ‘Anora’ is One Big Guild Win Away From Ending This Race appeared first on Awards Radar.

]]>
NEON

Happy Valentine’s Day, folks! Hopefully you’re all celebrating love today. If any film right now is feeling the love, it’s Sean Baker‘s Anora. This weekend prior saw it pull arguably three upsets at the culmination of the critics prize section of awards season in the Critics Choice Awards, as well as two of the most influential guilds in the Directors Guild Awards and Producers Guild Awards. The movie has surged ahead in the Best Picture race, as well as likely for Baker in Best Director (while he remains probably the one to beat in Best Original Screenplay, plus becoming a legitimate threat in Best Film Editing). This big change in the Oscar race not just necessitated an update to my predictions, but a full recalibration of where we stand. So, that’s what I’ve done…

Having CCA, DGA, and PGA in its pocket makes Anora the undisputed frontrunner at the Academy Awards right now. It’s on the final guild awards to either confirm it as unbeatable or coalesce around which other Best Picture (and Best Director) nominee can come back and pull the upset. Assuming that Emilia Pérez is done and dusted, it’s on The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, or Wicked to get their acts together. It feels like an uphill battle, too, as none can boast the kind of Oscar crossover wins that Anora had. So, we have it on the precipice of pulling away.

NEON

Earlier in the week, I wrote here about the weekend that Anora had, stating the following:

For months now, two things have been consistent. One has been that pundits, including myself, have spoken about how wide open the Oscar race for Best Picture has been. The other is that, ever since the movie premiered at the Cannes Film Festival and won the Palme d’Or, I’ve been predicting Anora to win Best Picture. I moved off of Sean Baker winning Best Director recently (more on that in a moment), but I’ve had the film winning Picture at the Academy Awards for much of 2024 and all of 2025. To some, it seemed like I was being stubborn. Well, after this weekend, it feels more like I was just early. I don’t say that to brag, just to point out that very little actually happened to give any other flick too much of a leg up. Now, we’re one more big precursor win away from the race being wrapped up. Go figure.

Anora obviously took the top prize at Cannes, earning Baker the best reviews of his career. I initially moved the film into the Oscar pole position due to it being the only title with a win on the board. Then, during Phase One of awards season, it scored as many or more critics group win than any other movie. So, there was no reason to doubt it. Precursor season was very kind to Anora, leading to it scoring pretty much exactly the amount of Oscar nominations it was always expected to receive, especially once Yura Borisov became a factor in Best Supporting Actor. Best Picture, Best Director for Baker, Best Actress for Mikey Madison, Best Original Screenplay for Baker, and Best Film Editing for Baker resulted in a half dozen citations. However, it seemed like other pundits had more stock in newer titles like The BrutalistA Complete Unknown, or even Wicked, though fellow Cannes alum Emilia Pérez was right there as well, at least until…recent events. It seemed like the Golden Globe results, where The Brutalist and Emilia Pérez got big wins, while Madison lost to Demi Moore, made it seem like Anora going home empty-handed was a harbinger of things to come. Well, at least until this weekend.

Friday night, the 30th Critics Choice Awards were held, with most of the night suggesting that Anora was going to get shut out. Baker lost in Best Editing to Challengers, Best Original Screenplay to Coralie Fargeat for The Substance, and Best Director to Jon M. Chu for Wicked. Borisov expectedly fell to Kieran Culkin for A Real Pain in Best Supporting Actor, while Madison came up short to Moore for The Substance in Best Actress. Then, Best Picture was announced. Lo and behold, Anora won. Now, CCA has no Academy crossover, but it was a sign of things to come.

Saturday night was the big one. The Directors Guild Awards and the Producers Guild Awards were given out, back to back. DGA was widely expected to go to Brady Corbet for The Brutalist, especially after he took Best Director at the Globes. PGA on the other hand, was wide open, though largely not expected to go to Anora. First, DGA announced and Baker unexpectedly triumphed. That shock reverberated through the industry, with many folks immediately wondering if the film was about to surprise with the producers next. Well, the movie sure did, being announced less than an hour later as the PGA victor. Suddenly, Anora is in a very enviable position.

Now, Anora is the favorite in Picture, Baker has an excellent chance in Director, while Original Screenplay and Film Editing are very much in play for the filmmaker as well. If the movie manages to win the top prize at the Screen Actors Guild Awards, it’ll be all over. The film is hardly assured of that, but at this point? Bet against it at your own risk. I’ll be writing more about this with updated predictions at the end of the week, but the tide sure has turned…

NEON

This weekend, the BAFTA Awards and Writers Guild Awards are being held. BAFTA likely will favor Conclave, while WGA should go for Anora in Original, with A Complete Unknown likely in Adapted. After this weekend, it will mostly be left to the Screen Actors Guild Awards to potentially shake up the race. That being said, things are adding up to really favor Baker’s film. Honestly? If not for the movie being my favorite of the year and my own pessimism making me think that things I love don’t get rewarded, I’d be even more confident in Anora‘s Picture likelihood.

Watch out to see if Anora can pull off any more big wins. This weekend, it’s poised to take one of the WGA prizes, while BAFTA does feel like a longer shot. If it wins something notable with the latter precursor, watch out. Likewise, when SAG comes later on this month, if the top prize goes to Anora, it’s game over. Either way, the flick is clearly the frontrunner, so barring a true alternative emerging, it’s set up very nicely for some Oscar wins. The question is, how many?

My prior predictions article from before the nominations (found here) is available for your perusal, of course. Somehow, we’ve reached the back end of Phase Two and the Guild prizes, so things are beginning to fall into place. The upcoming final precursors and Guilds are what still matters, as voters will be paying attention, even if a frontrunner in Anora has definitely emerged. So, you really should be too!

Folks, as always you can see my newest crack at Oscar predictions right here at Awards Radar, plus a still initial attempt at Spirit Award predictions (updates coming soon), as well as a new set of SAG predictions, alongside my final WGA ones, too. Strap in for some more winners this weekend, which could continue to tell us some things…

Stay tuned for an update to these Academy Award predictions very soon!

The post Awards Season / Oscar Predictions Update: ‘Anora’ is One Big Guild Win Away From Ending This Race appeared first on Awards Radar.

]]>
https://awardsradar.com/2025/02/14/awards-season-oscar-predictions-update-anora-is-one-big-guild-win-away-from-ending-this-race/feed/ 0 137146
Awards Season / Oscar Predictions Update: Factoring in the ‘Emilia Pérez’ Fallout As Guilds Begin to Announce https://awardsradar.com/2025/02/07/awards-season-oscar-predictions-update-factoring-in-the-emilia-perez-fallout-as-guilds-begin-to-announce/ https://awardsradar.com/2025/02/07/awards-season-oscar-predictions-update-factoring-in-the-emilia-perez-fallout-as-guilds-begin-to-announce/#respond Fri, 07 Feb 2025 09:34:20 +0000 https://awardsradar.com/?p=136665 For much of the season, it felt as though predictions only needed to be updated in dribs and drabs. Well, that’s about to change. Not only do we have notable precursors coming today and this weekend, we also had in the last few days a real curveball thrown in the whole Emilia Pérez situation. So, […]

The post Awards Season / Oscar Predictions Update: Factoring in the ‘Emilia Pérez’ Fallout As Guilds Begin to Announce appeared first on Awards Radar.

]]>

For much of the season, it felt as though predictions only needed to be updated in dribs and drabs. Well, that’s about to change. Not only do we have notable precursors coming today and this weekend, we also had in the last few days a real curveball thrown in the whole Emilia Pérez situation. So, there’s really no excuse not to have new Academy Award predictions ready. They’ll need to be updated next week, but for the moment, I’ve taken a new look at who and what the Oscars might honor.

Tonight, the Critics Choice Awards are being handed out. This weekend also contains the Annie Awards, as well as the big dogs in the Directors Guild and especially the Producers Guild. Look to DGA and in particular, PGA, to be factors in the Oscar end game. Well, give or take how they handle Emilia Pérez. More below.

Netflix

I wrote earlier on in the week here about how the Karla Sofía Gascón scandal could potentially hurt Emilia Pérez in a big way. So, I don’t need to really rehash that. What I do want to look at is how the fallout from that whole situation could reverberate throughout the Academy Awards. For example, will voters penalize Zoe Saldaña in Best Supporting Actress? She’s been a slam dunk winner up until this, but now there might be a race brewing. Gascón torpedoed her own chances in Best Actress, without question, but it remains to be seen if she’ll take her co-star down with her or not. Best Original Score and Best Original Song seem like firewalls, where the film should still emerge victorious, but watch out for an upset in Best International Feature. Again, it has felt like the movie to beat, but now, with voters potentially reconsidering their support, I’m Still Here is right there, also a Best Picture nominee, and a Best Actress nominee as well for Fernanda Torres. Watch out for that flick to siphon a number of votes if things don’t change in a big way.

The big scenario to look at is in Best Picture. Prior to the past week’s scandal, Emilia Pérez seemed like easily one of the top three contenders for Picture, at worst. Now? If it’s in the top six, it’s lucky, but winning feels out of the question. So, this is a major opening for the probable top five in Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, and Wicked. They’re all looking for some Guild love, which could give them the momentum they need. They all have pluses and minuses in their favor/against them, so Picture has just become even more wide open than it was previously, due to the Phase Two chaos that’s now brewing.

Searchlight

One potential contender that could really benefit, and potentially was already really on the upswing is A Complete Unknown. The Bob Dylan biopic is a film that probably does very well on a preferential ballot. Up until now, I’d been trying to see where it could squeeze a win out of its nominations. Now, if Emilia Pérez is giving it a big boost in Best Picture, it will need at least one other one. That’s where we might see Timothée Chalamet move ahead of Adrien Brody in Best Actor, or Jay Cocks and James Mangold take the lead in Best Adapted Screenplay, where up until now Conclave seemed like the one to beat. You’ll have to check my updated predictions today to see if I went that far, but it’s an evolving situation, especially now that one of the frontrunners in Picture seems to be likely out of the running.

This is where Phase Two really starts to come into focus. DGA may end up being more or less what we’ve long suspected, but PGA is a wide open race now. Post Producers Guild, we may have a much better idea of the titles actually in the running to win the Oscar for Best Picture. Academy Award voters, if nothing else, will undoubtedly be paying attention.

Right now, Netflix is in full damage control mode, trying to save whatever wins it can for Emilia Pérez, mainly by trying to ignore Gascón completely. Just look at the FYC ad above, which pretends that the star of the flick is Saldaña. Will Academy members go for it? Saving the Supporting Actress win for her should be priority number one for Netflix. If the Screen Actors Guild still goes for her, she can probably breathe easy. If they penalize her? Well, then all bets are off.

Next up is CCA, followed this weekend by the Annie Awards, DGA, and PGA. Keep in mind that with CCA, DGA, and PGA, voting ended before Gascón knocked over the apple cart. So, there’s the possibility of what are essentially phantom wins by Emilia Pérez. It makes for an interesting weekend, where if that film wins things, you almost want to throw it out, while if it loses, depending on who/what it loses to, you might know which movie or movies are grabbing new voters from a sinking cinematic ship. It’s a situation worth paying attention to…

My prior predictions article from before the nominations (found here) is available for your perusal, of course. Now, we’ve reached the start of Phase Two and Guild prizes, things are going to be different. The upcoming precursors and Guilds are what matter, as voters will be paying attention. So, you should be too!

Folks, as always you can see my newest crack at Oscar predictions right here at Awards Radar, plus an attempt at Spirit Award predictions, as well as a final set of DGA predictions and  PGA predictions. They exist alongside SAG predictions, and WGA ones, too. Strap in for some big winners this weekend, which could tell us a lot…

Stay tuned for an update to these Academy Award predictions very soon!

The post Awards Season / Oscar Predictions Update: Factoring in the ‘Emilia Pérez’ Fallout As Guilds Begin to Announce appeared first on Awards Radar.

]]>
https://awardsradar.com/2025/02/07/awards-season-oscar-predictions-update-factoring-in-the-emilia-perez-fallout-as-guilds-begin-to-announce/feed/ 0 136665
Awards Season / Oscar Predictions Update: A First Crack at Phase Two Picks After the Nominations https://awardsradar.com/2025/01/29/awards-season-oscar-predictions-update-a-first-crack-at-phase-two-picks-after-the-nominations/ https://awardsradar.com/2025/01/29/awards-season-oscar-predictions-update-a-first-crack-at-phase-two-picks-after-the-nominations/#comments Wed, 29 Jan 2025 08:28:10 +0000 https://awardsradar.com/?p=136109 Welcome to Phase Two! Last week, the Academy Award nominations were revealed, ending Phase One and giving us a whole new crop of Oscar nominees. That same day, my predictions were obviously updated, which is perhaps a sign of some sort of compulsive disorder, but also a signal that we’ve entered a new stage of […]

The post Awards Season / Oscar Predictions Update: A First Crack at Phase Two Picks After the Nominations appeared first on Awards Radar.

]]>
Welcome to Phase Two! Last week, the Academy Award nominations were revealed, ending Phase One and giving us a whole new crop of Oscar nominees. That same day, my predictions were obviously updated, which is perhaps a sign of some sort of compulsive disorder, but also a signal that we’ve entered a new stage of the game. As we dive into Phase Two, I’m sharing my predictions, as well as a quick state of the race.

The nominations on Thursday morning did two very specific things. One is that it showed us who and what actually are Academy Award nominees. So there’s that. The other thing, however, is that it really didn’t fundamentally change the race in any notable way. With as close a race, especially in Best Picture, as we have, it’s going to be on the Guilds even more so than usual. The precursor season will be a race to the finish, lead up to Oscar night.

With regard to the acting races, Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress remain more or less done deals, with Kieran Culkin for A Real Pain and Zoe Saldaña for Emilia Pérez, respectively, way out in front. The nomination morning surprises were Jeremy Strong getting into Supporting Actor for The Apprentice and Felicity Jones getting into Supporting Actress for The Brutalist. Still, I’d be shocked if Culkin and Saldaña don’t hold on to take the gold.

The Lead categories are more fluid. Best Actor saw Daniel Craig miss for Queer in favor of Sebastian Stan for The Apprentice, while in Best Actress it was Fernanda Torres getting nominated for I’m Still Here, taking that final spot that everyone was trying so hard to figure out. Now, Actor feels like either Adrien Brody for The Brutalist or Timothée Chalamet for A Complete Unknown, with Ralph Fiennes hoping to come up the middle for Conclave. As for Actress, Demi Moore feels like the sentimental favorite right now for The Substance, though watch out for Torres, while Mikey Madison is hardly out of it for Anora. These are going to be fun races that go down to the wire.

Below the line, we saw Dune: Part Two falter in several spots, while Emilia Pérez over-performed. There were also strong showings for A Complete Unknown, Nosferatu, and Wicked. Watching to see which film or films do the best in the technical categories will be key in figuring out Picture. Especially for a movie nominated across the board, putting wins on the board will be huge, as the tech categories do correlate above the line.

Best Director feels like Brady Corbet already has it in the bag for The Brutalist. The big nomination morning surprise was that both Coralie Fargeat for The Substance and James Mangold for A Complete Unknown cracked the list, with the excluded filmmaker being Conclave‘s Edward Berger. If it turns into something close to an Emilia Pérez sweep, watch out for Jacques Audiard, but Corbert is going to be hard to beat.

As for Best Picture, the top six contenders truly do all have the ability to make compelling, if incomplete, arguments. We’ll get into those in the coming weeks, but I’d only really count out Dune: Part Two, I’m Still Here (the big surprise of the morning), Nickel Boys (a mild surprise getting in), and The Substance. They just are too far behind. Then, there’s A Complete Unknown, which could benefit greatly on the preferential ballot, as well as Conclave, give or take the Berger snub. A level up, we have Wicked, which scored plenty of nods but will have to fight for respect like Barbie did a year ago. By that logic, the three most likely winners this year are Anora, The Brutalist, and Emilia Pérez. They each have strengths and weaknesses, though all need these noms to turn into wins elsewhere, including the Guilds. There’s a chance we won’t know who is winning Best Picture until Oscar night, which I personally love.

Next up is the Critics Choice Awards, which won’t tell us much, though could provide some extra airtime and buzz to a contender. It’ll be once DGA, PGA, and SAG chime in with their winners that we’ll have a better idea of what’s what. Until then, the nominated films and artists can enjoy this victory lap from Phase One. We’ve come to Phase Two, where the pretenders are gone, yet the contenders must now duke it out with each other. Sit tight for plenty of excitement between now and the Academy Awards!

My prior predictions article from before the nominations (found here) is available for your perusal, of course. Now, we’ve reached the start of Phase Two, things are going to be different. The precursors and Guilds that are still to come matter, as voters will be paying attention. So, you should be too! Plus, if you care about this sort of thing, it’s truly prime time for awards season.

Folks, as always you can see my newest crack at Oscar predictions right here at Awards Radar, plus a first attempt at Spirit Award predictions, as well as an initial set of DGA predictions and SAG predictions, alongside ones for the PGA and WGA, too. The Academy Award nominations are in the books and the Phase Two precursors are kicking off, so strap in…

Stay tuned for an update to these Academy Award predictions very soon!

The post Awards Season / Oscar Predictions Update: A First Crack at Phase Two Picks After the Nominations appeared first on Awards Radar.

]]>
https://awardsradar.com/2025/01/29/awards-season-oscar-predictions-update-a-first-crack-at-phase-two-picks-after-the-nominations/feed/ 1 136109
Awards Season / Oscar Predictions Update: Final Picks as the Academy Gets Set to End Phase One on Thursday Morning https://awardsradar.com/2025/01/21/awards-season-oscar-predictions-update-final-picks-as-the-academy-gets-set-to-end-phase-one-on-thursday-morning/ https://awardsradar.com/2025/01/21/awards-season-oscar-predictions-update-final-picks-as-the-academy-gets-set-to-end-phase-one-on-thursday-morning/#respond Tue, 21 Jan 2025 07:45:21 +0000 https://awardsradar.com/?p=135589 We have come to the end of Phase One ladies and gentlemen. On Thursday morning, the Oscar nominations will be revealed to us. The Academy has finished voting, so all that’s left to do is wait. Well, wait and also…make my final predictions! So, today, I present to you where I’ve landed in regards to […]

The post Awards Season / Oscar Predictions Update: Final Picks as the Academy Gets Set to End Phase One on Thursday Morning appeared first on Awards Radar.

]]>
Greg Harbaugh – Image Group LA

We have come to the end of Phase One ladies and gentlemen. On Thursday morning, the Oscar nominations will be revealed to us. The Academy has finished voting, so all that’s left to do is wait. Well, wait and also…make my final predictions! So, today, I present to you where I’ve landed in regards to the 97th Academy Award nominations.

What I’m doing here, besides linking to my final picks, of course, is to explain more or less where we are. Some categories feel more cut and dried than others, while some films or performances feel more locked in than others. I want you to kind of have the lay of the land, movie-wise, as we await Thursday morning and the big announcement…

Mubi

First up, the technical categories. Below the line, look for how well upper echelon contenders like The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, and Wicked do. Likewise, does Anora or A Complete Unknown get an extra nomination or two? Does a film like Dune: Part Two end up snubbed anywhere? Then, look out for if The Substance shows force. Beyond the likely Best Picture nominees, does a film like Blitz arise from the dead? Does a movie like Gladiator II wind up shut out? This is also where we’ll see Nosferatu either show up or not. A big piece of the puzzle resides in the tech fields.

The Screenplay categories do seem to have frontrunners, though both races have open positions, to be sure. Best Original Screenplay feels like Sean Baker‘s to lose for Anora, but The Brutalist and A Real Pain feel very safely in, at worst. That lineup could be rounded out by September 5 and The Substance, though Challengers is right there, not to mention Civil War and Hard Truths. As for Best Adapted Screenplay, Conclave seems to be a strong frontrunner. That being said, anything could happen. The rest of the lineup might be A Complete Unknown, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, and Nickel Boys, but sleep on Sing Sing at your own peril, with Wicked looming large.

In the Lead acting categories, there’s plenty to discuss. Best Actor has four presumed locks with Adrien Brody for The Brutalist (the odds-on favorite to win), Timonthée Chalamet for A Complete Unknown, Colman Domingo for Sing Sing, and Ralph Fiennes for Conclave. Then, it seems like the fifth slot is a jump ball between Daniel Craig for Queer and Sebastian Stan for The Apprentice. I’ll be going back and forth on that one for a bit still. Best Actress has really broken in a way to suggest that as long as Demi Moore gets in, she feels like the favorite to win for The Substance. I see Karla Sofía Gascón locked in for Emilia Pérez, alongside Mikey Madison for Anora. Then, it’s between Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths), Nicole Kidman (Babygirl), and Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here) for those final two slots, with Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl) looming as a spoiler alongside Kate Winslet (Lee).

As for Supporting, we have huge frontrunners with back end question marks. Best Supporting Actor is almost assuredly going to Kieran Culkin for A Real Pain, with his almost sure thing fellow nominees being Yura Borisov for Anora, Edward Norton for A Complete Unknown, and Guy Pearce for The Brutalist. That final spot, however, could just as easily go to Jeremy Strong for The Apprentice as it could to Clarence Maclin for Sing Sing or Denzel Washington for Gladiator II. That’s assuming there isn’t a shock nomination for Conclave‘s Stanley Tucci, of course. Best Supporting Actress is one of the easiest calls to make, as Zoe Saldaña feels unstoppable for her turn in Emilia Pérez. Joining her is a very amorphous lineup, one that has changed more than any other this season. Ariana Grande feels safe for Wicked, while Isabella Rossellini is more likely than not for Conclave. After that? It’s more or less even money for the final two invitations, with Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown), Jamie Lee Curtis (The Last Showgirl), Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), and Margaret Qualley (The Substance) all on essentially equal footing. Good luck figuring this one out.

With Best Director, you can go with the DGA five of Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), and James Mangold (A Complete Unknown), or you can sub out Mangold for someone. If so, who? There’s Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), RaMell Ross (Nickel Boys), and Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two), but maybe there’s a surprise and it’s Payal Kapadia (All We Imagine As Light) when all is said and done?

Finally, in Best Picture, I feel very confident about seven nominees. Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, and Wicked will be nominated. Then, I’m not fully buying the buzz that A Real Pain could miss, but it does put it on slightly shakier ground. So, maybe it’s in the eighth slot, with the final two positions a real fight to the finish between Challengers, Nickel Boys, September 5, Sing Sing, and The Substance. How you come down on that will depend on how much stock you put in PGA, for example. I’m settling on my picks shortly, which you’ll be able to see at the links below, but remember…be consistent. Follow your logic. That way, if you’re wrong, you’re at least presenting a picture that makes sense.

Overall, just prepare yourself for anything to happen. There will be surprises and snubs. There will be new frontrunners. Films and performances you never would have expected to miss will miss. A movie or two will unexpectedly be shut out. Essentially, brace yourself. Oscar is about to rock our worlds, so just sit back and enjoy the ride on Thursday morning…

My prior predictions article (found here) is available for your perusal, of course, as always. Now, we’ve reached the end of Phase One, so these picks are where I’m standing. Will I be right? Partially, sure. I’ll miss plenty, too. That’s the name of the game. Hopefully, you understand my logic, which is as important as anything.

Folks, as always you can see my newest crack at Oscar predictions right here at Awards Radar, plus a first attempt at Spirit Award predictions, as well as an initial set of DGA predictions and SAG predictions, alongside ones for the PGA and WGA, too. The Academy Award nominations are coming bright and early on Thursday morning, so sit tight…

Stay tuned for an update to these Academy Award predictions after the Oscar nominations on Thursday morning!

The post Awards Season / Oscar Predictions Update: Final Picks as the Academy Gets Set to End Phase One on Thursday Morning appeared first on Awards Radar.

]]>
https://awardsradar.com/2025/01/21/awards-season-oscar-predictions-update-final-picks-as-the-academy-gets-set-to-end-phase-one-on-thursday-morning/feed/ 0 135589
Awards Season / Oscar Predictions Update: The Academy is Now Voting As Campaigning Has Come to a (Temporary?) Halt https://awardsradar.com/2025/01/10/awards-season-oscar-predictions-update-the-academy-is-now-voting-as-campaigning-has-come-to-a-temporary-halt/ https://awardsradar.com/2025/01/10/awards-season-oscar-predictions-update-the-academy-is-now-voting-as-campaigning-has-come-to-a-temporary-halt/#respond Fri, 10 Jan 2025 09:11:17 +0000 https://awardsradar.com/?p=134990 This past week has been unlike any really in the history of awards seasons. The entire nature of the season has been upended, with campaigning and the like on pause, due to the wildfires currently devastating parts of Los Angeles. Rightly, that’s what is on everyone’s mind, whether you’re in LA or not. Awards Radar […]

The post Awards Season / Oscar Predictions Update: The Academy is Now Voting As Campaigning Has Come to a (Temporary?) Halt appeared first on Awards Radar.

]]>
This past week has been unlike any really in the history of awards seasons. The entire nature of the season has been upended, with campaigning and the like on pause, due to the wildfires currently devastating parts of Los Angeles. Rightly, that’s what is on everyone’s mind, whether you’re in LA or not. Awards Radar is based out of New York, so I’m not in any danger, but my thoughts are obviously with the staff members out west, our readers, as well as numerous colleagues, all of whom are facing monumental tragedy. Spare a thought for them, alongside anyone you know who is impacted by the fires. I’m going to do my planned predictions piece below, with some changes, obviously, but I would be remiss not to have mentioned that.

As for the season as it was before the fires, the combination of the Golden Globe Awards results, followed by the nominations for the Directors Guild and Screen Actors Guild, set the stage for Oscar voting to begin, with the Producers Guild initially having been set to announce today. Yes, now is the time when Academy members are casting their ballots, armed with this information. Normally, you’d be paying close attention to anything that happens during these days. Now, the dance card has been rearranged, though some members are surely looking towards the movies as distraction. For those who need it as well, I present to you updated predictions for the Academy Awards, as well as some mild analysis of where we currently stand.

Sunday, the Golden Globes went down, which we discussed on the podcast here. In short, nothing was really hurt by losses, given the lack of Academy crossover, but televised wins never hurt. As such, The Brutalist and Emilia Pérez showcased some bonafides, while Demi Moore really gave her campaign a huge boost. Coming right as Oscar voting was getting set to kick off, Moore especially may have gone from sixth, seventh, or even eighth all the way up to second or perhaps even the pole position.

DGA gave us our four presumed safe picks for Best Director in Jacques Audiard, Sean Baker, Edward Berger, and Brady Corbet. However, that wide open fifth slot, which could go in a lot of directions, had the Guild cite James Mangold. Now, as mentioned when these nominations happened, RaMell Ross got a nomination in a different category, so still looms large with Oscar. These feel like the six main contenders for Director, barring a major upset or move towards the director of a film more beloved than expected by the Academy.

SAG had a lot to pour over, as always. The five Best Ensemble nominees are pretty much locked in for Best Picture nominations, while Best Actor should go five for five. The other categories? Not so much. Mainly here, you have to decide how much you view snubs for Angelina Jolie, Guy Pearce, Isabella Rossellini, and Denzel Washington alongside surprise nominations for Pamela Anderson, Jonathan Bailey, Jamie Lee Curtis, and Jeremy Strong. My hunch is to watch out for Curtis and maybe Strong, while only really writing off, more or less, Jolie.

Obviously, campaigning is now at a standstill, which more or less keeps things as they were in the aftermath of the Globes. Oscar voting has been extended into next week, but with everything basically static, voters may just stick with their gut instincts. The delay of PGA to right at the end of voting may be an issue, but also could just keep members with their chalk picks. That’s another element I’ll be considering next week as I plan to finalize all of my choices.

Next week, I’ll drop final predictions on Friday, right before the Oscar nominations are announced on Sunday. Voting will have ended, so these are the days where decisions are made. In prior years, these precursors, especially being Guilds, loom large, but attention is certainly at the very least divided. So, it’s anyone’s guess what that means. Again, life and reality is far more important, but awards season will carry on, if delayed by a dew days.

My prior predictions article (found here) is available for your perusal, of course, and can see some more of the changes I’ve been making over the past week or so. Again, this is the time where actual changes of note start to happen, even though no individual precursor can make that big a difference. The cumulative nature of it, however, has had an impact, so stay tuned to see where I ultimately land with final predictions next week.

Folks, as always you can see my newest crack at Oscar predictions right here at Awards Radar, plus a first attempt at Spirit Award predictions, as well as an initial set of DGA predictions and SAG predictions. Sit tight for more in the coming days, as we reach the end of Oscar voting and then the conclusion of Phase One…

Stay tuned for a final Phase One update to these Oscar predictions next week!

The post Awards Season / Oscar Predictions Update: The Academy is Now Voting As Campaigning Has Come to a (Temporary?) Halt appeared first on Awards Radar.

]]>
https://awardsradar.com/2025/01/10/awards-season-oscar-predictions-update-the-academy-is-now-voting-as-campaigning-has-come-to-a-temporary-halt/feed/ 0 134990