Joey Magidson
We have come to the end of Phase One ladies and gentlemen. On Thursday morning, the Oscar nominations will be revealed to us. The Academy has finished voting, so all that’s left to do is wait. Well, wait and also…make my final predictions! So, today, I present to you where I’ve landed in regards to the 97th Academy Award nominations.
What I’m doing here, besides linking to my final picks, of course, is to explain more or less where we are. Some categories feel more cut and dried than others, while some films or performances feel more locked in than others. I want you to kind of have the lay of the land, movie-wise, as we await Thursday morning and the big announcement…
First up, the technical categories. Below the line, look for how well upper echelon contenders like The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, and Wicked do. Likewise, does Anora or A Complete Unknown get an extra nomination or two? Does a film like Dune: Part Two end up snubbed anywhere? Then, look out for if The Substance shows force. Beyond the likely Best Picture nominees, does a film like Blitz arise from the dead? Does a movie like Gladiator II wind up shut out? This is also where we’ll see Nosferatu either show up or not. A big piece of the puzzle resides in the tech fields.
The Screenplay categories do seem to have frontrunners, though both races have open positions, to be sure. Best Original Screenplay feels like Sean Baker‘s to lose for Anora, but The Brutalist and A Real Pain feel very safely in, at worst. That lineup could be rounded out by September 5 and The Substance, though Challengers is right there, not to mention Civil War and Hard Truths. As for Best Adapted Screenplay, Conclave seems to be a strong frontrunner. That being said, anything could happen. The rest of the lineup might be A Complete Unknown, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, and Nickel Boys, but sleep on Sing Sing at your own peril, with Wicked looming large.
In the Lead acting categories, there’s plenty to discuss. Best Actor has four presumed locks with Adrien Brody for The Brutalist (the odds-on favorite to win), Timonthée Chalamet for A Complete Unknown, Colman Domingo for Sing Sing, and Ralph Fiennes for Conclave. Then, it seems like the fifth slot is a jump ball between Daniel Craig for Queer and Sebastian Stan for The Apprentice. I’ll be going back and forth on that one for a bit still. Best Actress has really broken in a way to suggest that as long as Demi Moore gets in, she feels like the favorite to win for The Substance. I see Karla Sofía Gascón locked in for Emilia Pérez, alongside Mikey Madison for Anora. Then, it’s between Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths), Nicole Kidman (Babygirl), and Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here) for those final two slots, with Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl) looming as a spoiler alongside Kate Winslet (Lee).
As for Supporting, we have huge frontrunners with back end question marks. Best Supporting Actor is almost assuredly going to Kieran Culkin for A Real Pain, with his almost sure thing fellow nominees being Yura Borisov for Anora, Edward Norton for A Complete Unknown, and Guy Pearce for The Brutalist. That final spot, however, could just as easily go to Jeremy Strong for The Apprentice as it could to Clarence Maclin for Sing Sing or Denzel Washington for Gladiator II. That’s assuming there isn’t a shock nomination for Conclave‘s Stanley Tucci, of course. Best Supporting Actress is one of the easiest calls to make, as Zoe Saldaña feels unstoppable for her turn in Emilia Pérez. Joining her is a very amorphous lineup, one that has changed more than any other this season. Ariana Grande feels safe for Wicked, while Isabella Rossellini is more likely than not for Conclave. After that? It’s more or less even money for the final two invitations, with Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown), Jamie Lee Curtis (The Last Showgirl), Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), and Margaret Qualley (The Substance) all on essentially equal footing. Good luck figuring this one out.
With Best Director, you can go with the DGA five of Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), and James Mangold (A Complete Unknown), or you can sub out Mangold for someone. If so, who? There’s Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), RaMell Ross (Nickel Boys), and Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two), but maybe there’s a surprise and it’s Payal Kapadia (All We Imagine As Light) when all is said and done?
Finally, in Best Picture, I feel very confident about seven nominees. Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, and Wicked will be nominated. Then, I’m not fully buying the buzz that A Real Pain could miss, but it does put it on slightly shakier ground. So, maybe it’s in the eighth slot, with the final two positions a real fight to the finish between Challengers, Nickel Boys, September 5, Sing Sing, and The Substance. How you come down on that will depend on how much stock you put in PGA, for example. I’m settling on my picks shortly, which you’ll be able to see at the links below, but remember…be consistent. Follow your logic. That way, if you’re wrong, you’re at least presenting a picture that makes sense.
Overall, just prepare yourself for anything to happen. There will be surprises and snubs. There will be new frontrunners. Films and performances you never would have expected to miss will miss. A movie or two will unexpectedly be shut out. Essentially, brace yourself. Oscar is about to rock our worlds, so just sit back and enjoy the ride on Thursday morning…
My prior predictions article (found here) is available for your perusal, of course, as always. Now, we’ve reached the end of Phase One, so these picks are where I’m standing. Will I be right? Partially, sure. I’ll miss plenty, too. That’s the name of the game. Hopefully, you understand my logic, which is as important as anything.
Folks, as always you can see my newest crack at Oscar predictions right here at Awards Radar, plus a first attempt at Spirit Award predictions, as well as an initial set of DGA predictions and SAG predictions, alongside ones for the PGA and WGA, too. The Academy Award nominations are coming bright and early on Thursday morning, so sit tight…
Stay tuned for an update to these Academy Award predictions after the Oscar nominations on Thursday morning!
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