Awards Season / Oscar Predictions Update: The Academy is Now Voting As Campaigning Has Come to a (Temporary?) Halt

This past week has been unlike any really in the history of awards seasons. The entire nature of the season has been upended, with campaigning and the like on pause, due to the wildfires currently devastating parts of Los Angeles. Rightly, that’s what is on everyone’s mind, whether you’re in LA or not. Awards Radar is based out of New York, so I’m not in any danger, but my thoughts are obviously with the staff members out west, our readers, as well as numerous colleagues, all of whom are facing monumental tragedy. Spare a thought for them, alongside anyone you know who is impacted by the fires. I’m going to do my planned predictions piece below, with some changes, obviously, but I would be remiss not to have mentioned that.

As for the season as it was before the fires, the combination of the Golden Globe Awards results, followed by the nominations for the Directors Guild and Screen Actors Guild, set the stage for Oscar voting to begin, with the Producers Guild initially having been set to announce today. Yes, now is the time when Academy members are casting their ballots, armed with this information. Normally, you’d be paying close attention to anything that happens during these days. Now, the dance card has been rearranged, though some members are surely looking towards the movies as distraction. For those who need it as well, I present to you updated predictions for the Academy Awards, as well as some mild analysis of where we currently stand.

Sunday, the Golden Globes went down, which we discussed on the podcast here. In short, nothing was really hurt by losses, given the lack of Academy crossover, but televised wins never hurt. As such, The Brutalist and Emilia Pérez showcased some bonafides, while Demi Moore really gave her campaign a huge boost. Coming right as Oscar voting was getting set to kick off, Moore especially may have gone from sixth, seventh, or even eighth all the way up to second or perhaps even the pole position.

DGA gave us our four presumed safe picks for Best Director in Jacques Audiard, Sean Baker, Edward Berger, and Brady Corbet. However, that wide open fifth slot, which could go in a lot of directions, had the Guild cite James Mangold. Now, as mentioned when these nominations happened, RaMell Ross got a nomination in a different category, so still looms large with Oscar. These feel like the six main contenders for Director, barring a major upset or move towards the director of a film more beloved than expected by the Academy.

SAG had a lot to pour over, as always. The five Best Ensemble nominees are pretty much locked in for Best Picture nominations, while Best Actor should go five for five. The other categories? Not so much. Mainly here, you have to decide how much you view snubs for Angelina Jolie, Guy Pearce, Isabella Rossellini, and Denzel Washington alongside surprise nominations for Pamela Anderson, Jonathan Bailey, Jamie Lee Curtis, and Jeremy Strong. My hunch is to watch out for Curtis and maybe Strong, while only really writing off, more or less, Jolie.

Obviously, campaigning is now at a standstill, which more or less keeps things as they were in the aftermath of the Globes. Oscar voting has been extended into next week, but with everything basically static, voters may just stick with their gut instincts. The delay of PGA to right at the end of voting may be an issue, but also could just keep members with their chalk picks. That’s another element I’ll be considering next week as I plan to finalize all of my choices.

Next week, I’ll drop final predictions on Friday, right before the Oscar nominations are announced on Sunday. Voting will have ended, so these are the days where decisions are made. In prior years, these precursors, especially being Guilds, loom large, but attention is certainly at the very least divided. So, it’s anyone’s guess what that means. Again, life and reality is far more important, but awards season will carry on, if delayed by a dew days.

My prior predictions article (found here) is available for your perusal, of course, and can see some more of the changes I’ve been making over the past week or so. Again, this is the time where actual changes of note start to happen, even though no individual precursor can make that big a difference. The cumulative nature of it, however, has had an impact, so stay tuned to see where I ultimately land with final predictions next week.

Folks, as always you can see my newest crack at Oscar predictions right here at Awards Radar, plus a first attempt at Spirit Award predictions, as well as an initial set of DGA predictions and SAG predictions. Sit tight for more in the coming days, as we reach the end of Oscar voting and then the conclusion of Phase One…

Stay tuned for a final Phase One update to these Oscar predictions next week!