Joey Magidson
Can you believe it’s 2025? Of course, in the world of Oscar season, that means we’re now just weeks away from the Academy Award nominations. Consider how nuts that is, but time flies. As such, it feels like the moment to really get serious about predictions. Plus, we have something happening this weekend that functions as a major marker in the season, if not for predicting the Oscars, but for taking stock of where we’re at.
On Sunday, the 82nd Golden Globe Awards will be held. It will mark the first big televised awards show of the season, which will begin to draw audiences in to award season. The Globes always had that in their favor, even when they were a joke. Now, with their efforts to clean up their act, they could easily simulate an Oscar ceremony, winner-wise. Last year, that was more or less the case, as the Globe winners largely translated to the Academy Awards. That makes deviating from your Academy picks for the Globes a bit of a risky choice, but hey…fortune favors the bold. With my predictions for both the Globes and the Oscars now locked for the week, it feels like a good time to talk about what could happen on Sunday evening.
I went over with Myles here on the most recent Awards Radar Podcast episode my Globe thoughts earlier in the week, but my final picks are in. Some categories feel very easy, while others feel very tight. Given how wide open this season has felt, as well as how things have not really coalesced into frontrunners, as much as top tier, mid tier, and lower tier contenders, it makes sense that the Globes would follow suite. So, acing these picks is probably not in the cards for anyone, but using some Oscar related logic is probably the way to go.
For me, I’ll be looking at how Anora, The Brutalist, Emilia Pérez, and Wicked do, as each of the four could try to make the claim that they have Best Picture momentum after Sunday. If any of those films do especially well, make note of that. I wouldn’t pay too much mind to if any are shut out, since the voting blocs are so different, but this sort of high level publicity would be big for the three small movies, though for the blockbuster, it could solidify it as prestige, as opposed to perhaps just popcorn for some. Then, there’s the acting races, which feel like they’re getting pretty top heavy. Surprise wins may not shake those races up too much, but they could introduce some new possibilities here in the late stages of Phase One.
Now, remember that even though the Globes are supposedly new and improved, they haven’t yet established themselves as a reliable precursor. They’re mostly still a curiosity, though with the potential to become slightly more influential if they keep up the lack of anything embarrassing. For now, they’re not there yet, but you can’t completely dismiss them, either. So, make of that what you will.
After the Globes, all eyes will be on the Guilds, and yes, the Oscar nominations. That’s where we’ll actually know where Anora, The Brutalist, Emilia Pérez, and Wicked stand, as well as Conclave, among the top tier of Best Picture hopefuls. DGA, PGA, and SAG, as well as BAFTA, will help provide the clues, but it’s up to the Academy to actually figure it all out.
Take a beat, folks, as this is more or less the final update without it feeling like the fourth quarter of Phase One. So, before you know it, the Academy Award nominations will be in. The Golden Globe Awards are Sunday. Voting for the Critics Choice Awards is going on as well. Friends, it’s happening. Get ready!
My prior predictions article (found here) is available for your perusal, of course, and can see some more of the changes I’ve been making along the way, now that the precursor season has begun in earnest and the Oscar shortlist changes have come and gone. This is the time where actual changes of note start to happen, even though no individual precursor can make that big a difference. The cumulative nature of it, however, has an impact, so stay tuned as the picture gets clearer and clearer. The Golden Globe results won’t be massive factors, but they could be a factor to some degree, so just keep them in mind…
Folks, as always you can see my newest crack at Oscar predictions right here at Awards Radar, plus a first attempt at Spirit Award predictions, as well as a final set of Golden Globe predictions. The changes are coming, and will continue to come, more and more, especially as the Globes have their say this weekend. So, sit tight for much more as the season continues on in full force…
Stay tuned for another update to these Oscar predictions very soon!
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