Awards Season / Oscar Predictions Update: Which Films Are Faring Best During the Early Stages of the Precursor Announcements?

The season sure changed in a hurry, didn’t it? What once was a completely wide open awards season, without many frontrunners at all, now appears to have set up a few power players. I’m going to look at how that appears right now, seen through the lens of the precursor season. Plus, it was an excuse this week to update Academy Award predictions, as well as start up Golden Globe predictions. Throw in my recent attempt at Film Independent Spirit Award predictions and it’s more than just my Oscar picks here at Awards Radar. Predictions are here, baby!

Two of the precursors I’m really looking at here for this piece are AFI and the Golden Globes. The critics groups, including my own group in the Critics Choice Association, have chimed in a ton, ans while CCA is the big one there, they just don’t translate to the Academy. For what that’s worth, it seems like Anora and The Brutalist have been doing the best there, which keeps their names on the lips of voters, but they can’t take any of those wins to the bank.

One can argue that the AFI Top Ten will be our Best Picture ten, which wouldn’t be crazy. Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, A Real Pain, Sing Sing, and Wicked may well be what Oscar goes for. I’d say one of those is likely to mix, potentially for September 5, though watch out for Challengers and The Substance. Those thirteen flicks have managed to become the main titles hoping to be Academy Award nominees for Best Picture.

The Globes no longer go on any wild limbs and almost can be taken seriously, though we don’t know how Academy members see the precursor. So, don’t pay too much attention, but also don’t discount Globe nominees entirely. Emilia Pérez had an outsized showing that probably won’t be replicated, but getting that much notice is never a bad thing, for example. In a few weeks, especially once we have some guilds to really study, I’ll know more if the Golden Globe nominees will likely reflect Oscar. Either way, Globe predictions are here for you to check out as well, if you’re interested.

Films that seem to have done well or at least held steady so far during precursor season include Anora, The Brutalist, Challengers, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, A Real Pain, Sing Sing, The Substance, and Wicked. There’s a reason why they’re being bandied about for Best Picture nominations. They each have at least shown up everywhere they’ve needed to, while something like The Substance has exceeded all expectations.

On the other hand, Dune: Part Two and September 5, while in the mix, could have stood to have shown up a bit more the past week or two. Then, there’s films that have shown up very few places, less places than expected/needed, or basically ignored. Movies like Blitz, Gladiator II, Maria, The Room Next Door, and Saturday Night have seen their Oscar hopes narrow, if not dwindle. Nothing is out of the Academy Award hunt here in December, to be sure, but the separations are beginning to become noticeable.

Right now, I think the presumed frontrunners are still the presumed frontrunners, but each category is narrowing now to show you who and what the likelier contenders are. Next time around, I’ll probably look at the acting races, but in Picture at least, the fact that beyond the thirteen serious contenders, it seems hard to know the path for anything else tells us that we’ve entered a new section of the season. There’s no going back, that’s for sure.

Look for the guilds to have an outsized say this year, potentially. At the same time, look to see if momentum continues for things like Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, and Wicked, each of which would like to be considered the one to beat in Best Picture. Watch for how Emilia Pérez continues to have differing showings with different precursors. Look for if Nickel Boys can cement itself as a nominee or if it proves a bit too arty for the Academy. Also, keep an eye on Challengers and The Substance, especially the latter, to see if they can make moves to get ahead of something in Picture. It’s going to be really interesting to see in the upcoming weeks, as more and more elements of the precursor season reveal themselves…

My prior predictions article (found here) is available for your perusal, of course, and can see some more of the changes I’ve been making along the way, now that the precursor season has begun in earnest. This is the time where actual changes start to happen, even though no individual precursor can make that big a difference. The cumulative nature of it, however, has an impact, so stay tuned as the picture gets clearer and clearer…

Folks, as always you can see my newest crack at Oscar predictions right here at Awards Radar, plus a first attempt at Spirit Award predictions, as well as a slate of Golden Globe predictions. The changes are coming, and will continue to come, more and more, as the precursors get set to switch to a focus on the guilds. So, sit tight for much more as the season continues on in full force…

Stay tuned for another update to these Oscar predictions very soon!