Joey Magidson
Folks, we’re in it now. Not only have we seen every film in contention for Academy Award nominations/wins, the precursor season has gotten underway. We’re a long way away from knowing who and what will be cited by Oscar, but as the season progresses, more and more will be known. So, what better time is there to look at the race and update my predictions? Exactly. That’s what we’ll be doing today!
As of a few weeks ago, all of the contenders have screened. The final one was A Complete Unknown, coming after Wicked upended the race previously. The Bob Dylan biopic from James Mangold looks to fit into the season nicely, especially in terms of the acting races, where Timothée Chalamet looks like a threat. Throw in supporting work from Monica Barbaro, Elle Fanning, and Edward Norton, all of whom could be nominated as well, and this flick has made its presence felt. It’s not the across the board contender that Wicked is, but few will be this year.
A Complete Unknown, as well as Wicked, has shown up at the precursors it qualified for, so being last has clearly paid off, at least early on. That could bode well for both as potential Best Picture nominees. Plus, the latter won with the National Board of Review, which is a great harbinger of the Academy nominating the movie in Picture (though NBR is a poor predictor of the eventual winner).
Right now, the status quo does sort of remain. As the precursors continue, we could see things get really weird, or more or less stay chalk. If it’s the former, anything is possible. As for the latter, look to the AFI Top Ten as largely your Best Picture lineup. The Oscars could easily do a ten for ten there, though I’m not ready to predict that.
What to look for now is trends among the precursors. The Critics Choice and Golden Globe nominations are up next, so whatever crossover there could be worth taking at least a little note of. At the same time, we’re still in early days and so much can happen. It will be several more weeks before enough of the precursor awards combine to form a more coherent story for the season. Then, we’ll be cooking with gas…
My prior predictions article (found here) is available for your perusal, of course, and can see some more of the changes I’ve been making along the way, now that the precursor season has begun. This is the time where actual changes start to happen, even though no individual precursor can make that big a difference. The cumulative nature of it, however, has an impact, so stay tuned…
Folks, as always you can see my newest crack at Oscar predictions right here at Awards Radar, plus a first attempt at Spirit Award predictions. The changes are coming, and will continue to come, more and more, as the fall festivals have now concluded and the first precursors are underway. So, sit tight for much more as the season continues on in full force…
Stay tuned for another update to these Oscar predictions very soon!
[…] prior predictions article (found here) is available for your perusal, of course, and can see some more of the changes I’ve been making […]