Joey Magidson
Well, we almost have a full slate of information on our hands. The big film festivals are all in the rearview mirror, nearly all of the movies hoping for Academy Award consideration have screened, and the precursors are on the horizon. It’s the middle of October, headed towards Halloween, so it’s very much an inflection point for the impending awards season. As such, updated Oscar predictions are very much the name of the game today.
The festival season basically wrapped up (Middleburg is going on now, but isn’t debuting anything new of note, with AFI on the horizon), so that’s a major event. Telluride and Toronto came and went, with the former launching/helping to launch (alongside Cannes and Venice) some potential players, while the latter was much quieter. When TIFF doesn’t have any baity world premieres, it can put a damper on the season, potentially. This year, however, it just means that it’s a wide open race, to say the least.
Now, it comes down to four remaining X factors before the field is set, competition wise. These final titles consist of A Complete Unknown, Gladiator II, Juror #2, and Wicked. These films are each very different, but also represent different sides to Academy catnip, when done properly. So, the movies all enter the fall with a chance to shake up the race.
A Complete Unknown is one that I’ve speculated about previously here, but it’s very much a traditional contender. It’s also one I’m at least somewhat bullish on, in terms of potential nominations happening. James Mangold directing Timothée Chalamet as Bob Dylan? That may prove to be too much for Oscar to resist.
Gladiator II is the big populist possibility remaining. I actually see it on Monday, so you’ll find out my thoughts very soon. I’m somewhat skeptical of it as an Academy Award player above the line, though that doesn’t mean it won’t be a great flick. I’m just entering with more popcorn expectations than gold statues. Maybe that’s to its benefit? With Ridley Scott, you just never know until you see the final product…
Next, we have Juror #2. Normally, I’d steer far clear of a late stage Clint Eastwood film, though this does look like it’s a throwback to a better stage of his directing career. Done properly, the movie also has a definite Oscar appeal. Could voters want to honor Eastwood one more time? If the flick is good enough, don’t sleep on that possibility at all.
Finally, there’s Wicked. I’m really skeptical here, especially given how musicals have done of late. I could easily be wrong, but the time for this particular adaptation may have come and gone. So, that may prove to be a hurdle. At the same time, if you want to be charitable, maybe that means it can exceed expectations and build upon that?
My best guess? None of this quartet fully shakes up the race. If that’s the case, we still have titles like Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune Part Two, and Emilia Pérez seen as upper echelon players. There’s also films like Saturday Night and September 5 that could easily do very well with older Oscar voters. The season is shaping up to allow for many a possibility, so even a smaller movie like A Real Pain has a legitimate avenue to contend for a Best Picture nomination.
Of course, this is all speculation. Come Monday, I’ll have seen the Gladiator sequel, so that will help, but it still leaves us with months to figure this all out. The relative strength of these X factors, as compared to where a contender like Anora will stand, it’s all playing out in real time, over the coming weeks. Bold proclamations are fun right now, to be sure. At the same time, they rarely prove to be accurate.
My prior predictions article (found here) is available for your perusal, of course, and can see some more of the changes I’ve been making along the way, post festivals. Next up, it’s taking in these last titles that I’ve discussed above. Then, it’ll be precursor season before you know it. That’s where the real movement will take place, so stay tuned there…
Folks, as always you can see my newest crack at advance Oscar predictions right here at Awards Radar. The changes are coming, and will continue to come, more and more, as the fall festivals have now basically concluded. So, sit tight for much more as the season approaches in full force…
Stay tuned for another update to these Oscar predictions soon!
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