Predictions for the 78th Cannes Film Festival Awards

Tomorrow, the prizes for the 78th Cannes Film Festival will be given out. Today, I’m bringing you my annual predictions piece for the fest. Now, it’s different than usual, as in years past Robert Hamer has joined me and given a fairly substantial write-up, with yours truly tagging on at the end my picks. Usually, our logic does track, whether or not our picks work out. Unfortunately, Robert is out of the country and unavailable right now, so it’s just me this year. I won’t try to replace him, so below I’m just setting the stage for the Palme d’Or and other prizes, with my predictions at the end of the piece. Apologies, but it’s still a great opportunity to talk Cannes and the Palme, so there’s that at least, right?

Depending on who you ask or who you follow at the festival, this Cannes has been a disappointing one, given the early buzz on how it could be an all-timer of a lineup. At the very least, it’s a top-heavy fest. That’s not necessarily a hinderance for predictions, but it does present the possibility that some prizes could go to films that few are talking much about. So, depending on who you are, honors for movies like that are either a good surprise or a less than pleasant one. Your mileage just may vary there…

One thing to keep in mind when it comes to the Palme d’Or is the recent dominance by NEON. They have taken the last five and are looking to make it six in a row. That run is unparalleled and has even included a pair of Best Picture winners in Anora and Parasite. Throw in Anatomy of a Fall, Titane, and Triangle of Sadness, their other Palme winners, and it’s clear that they can take all sorts of Cannes titles to the finish line. So, look at the films under their banner and, until proven otherwise, given them a little extra leg up. It doesn’t mean one of those movies is assured of a win, to be clear, but it does feel like a noted advantage right now.

Some of the notable titles at Cannes this year have been met with differing receptions. Getting a mixed response (at best), was Alpha from Julia Ducornau, Eddington from Ari Aster, and (faring slightly better) The Phoenician Scheme from Wes Anderson. More positive but with some challenges or reservations would be Die My Love from Lynne Ramsay as well as The History of Sound from Oliver Hermanus. Frankly, it sounds like Pillion from Harry Lighton would have been the odds on favorite for the Palme had it been In Competition.

As for the films with what seems like the best chance at the Palme, I’m looking at Sentimental Value from Joachim Trier as the one to beat, in part due to the aforementioned NEON bent at Cannes. If not that one, then It Was Just an Accident from Jafar Panahi for similar reasons. Then, if NEON isn’t extending their streak, the two other contenders I’d look at are Nouvelle Vague from Richard Linklater and Sound of Falling from Mascha Schilinski.

Outside of the Palme d’Or, Jennifer Lawrence could be a decent bet to win the Best Actress prize for Die My Love, while Wagner Moura feels like a frontrunner here in Best Actor for The Secret Agent. The other prizes could come from the titles mentioned above that don’t take the Palme. That being said, Cannes always has some surprises, so just keep that in mind.

Now, we wait. The awards will be given out tomorrow. We’ll be sure to share the Palme winner, along with all of the other prizes, when the happen. In the meantime, Cannes is still showcasing their titles, so keep an ear to ground for any eleventh hour contenders…

Here now are my predictions for the awards to be given out at the 78th Cannes Film Festival. Behold:

Prix du scenario: Carla Simón – Romería (alternate: Mascha Schilinski and Louise Peter – Sound of Falling and Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt – Sentimental Value)

Prix de la mise en scène: Richard Linklater – Nouvelle Vague (alternate: Julia Ducornau – Alpha and Jafar Panahi – It Was Just an Accident)

Prix d’interprétation masculine: Wagner Moura – The Secret Agent (alternate: Benicio del Toro – The Phoenician Scheme and Guillaume Marbeck – Nouvelle Vague)

Prix d’interprétation feminine: Jennifer Lawrence – Die My Love (alternates: The Four Main Girls – Sound of Falling and Renate Reinsve – Sentimental Value)

Prix du Jury: The History of Sound (alternates: Eddington and The Secret Agent)

Grand Prix: The Young Mother’s Home (alternates: Nouvelle Vague and Romería)

Palme d’Or: Sentimental Value (alternates: It Was Just an Accident and Sound of Falling)

Well now, what do you all think, Awards Radar Community? Which predictions, if any, do you think will ultimately prevail? Which of the Main Competition entries are you most looking forward to? Let us know in the comments below…

Stay tuned to see who and what take home prizes from the 78th Cannes Film Festival!